Political beliefs affect compliance with government mandates

Social distancing is vital to mitigate the spread of the novel coronavirus. We use geolocation data to document that political beliefs present a significant limitation to the effectiveness of state-level social distancing orders. Residents in Republican counties are less likely to completely stay at home after a state order has been implemented relative to those in Democratic counties. Debit card transaction data shows that Democrats are more likely to switch to remote spending after state orders are implemented. Political alignment with officials giving orders may partially explain these partisan differences.

[1]  Austin L. Wright,et al.  Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols☆ , 2020, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

[2]  Jesse M. Shapiro,et al.  Cross-Country Trends in Affective Polarization , 2020, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[3]  S. Iyengar,et al.  Affect, Not Ideology A Social Identity Perspective on Polarization , 2012 .

[4]  Martin Andersen,et al.  Early Evidence on Social Distancing in Response to COVID-19 in the United States , 2020, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[5]  S. Iyengar,et al.  The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States , 2019, Annual Review of Political Science.

[6]  Sergio Correia,et al.  Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu , 2020, The Journal of Economic History.

[7]  Austin L. Wright,et al.  Science skepticism reduced compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place policies in the United States , 2021, Nature Human Behaviour.

[8]  Political storms: Emergent partisan skepticism of hurricane risks , 2020, Science Advances.

[9]  Leif D. Nelson,et al.  Specification Curve: Descriptive and Inferential Statistics on All Reasonable Specifications , 2015 .

[10]  A. Gerber,et al.  Partisanship, Political Control, and Economic Assessments , 2010 .

[11]  Ezra Karger,et al.  Do Stay-at-Home Orders Cause People to Stay at Home? Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Consumer Behavior , 2020, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[12]  M. Gentzkow,et al.  Polarization and public health: Partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic☆ , 2020, Journal of Public Economics.

[13]  R. Spiegler,et al.  A Model of Competing Narratives , 2018, American Economic Review.

[14]  N. Lacetera,et al.  Compliance with COVID-19 Social-Distancing Measures in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Duration , 2020, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[15]  S. Engle,et al.  Staying at Home: Mobility Effects of COVID-19 , 2020, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[16]  Justin Valasek,et al.  Political polarization and selection in representative democracies , 2019, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

[17]  M. K. Chen,et al.  The effect of partisanship and political advertising on close family ties , 2017, Science.

[18]  Thomas Gift,et al.  Does Politics Influence Hiring? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment , 2015 .

[19]  Matthew Levendusky,et al.  The Economic Consequences of Partisanship in a Polarized Era , 2018 .

[20]  Andrew Goodman-Bacon Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing , 2018, Journal of Econometrics.

[21]  Jonathan I. Dingel,et al.  How many jobs can be done at home? , 2020, Journal of Public Economics.

[22]  Margarita Tsoutsoura,et al.  Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts , 2018 .

[23]  Wenlan Qian,et al.  The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumption: Learning from High Frequency Transaction Data , 2020, AEA Papers and Proceedings.

[24]  A. Shenoy,et al.  God is in the rain: The impact of rainfall-induced early social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks , 2020, Journal of Health Economics.

[25]  Marcus Painter Firm Statements, Consumer Political Beliefs, and the Limits of Stakeholder Capitalism , 2020 .

[26]  Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020 , 2020, Journal of Public Economics.

[27]  Social Distancing and Social Capital: Why U.S. Counties Respond Differently to Covid-19 , 2020 .

[28]  Niels Johannesen,et al.  Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia , 2020, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.