Establishment of Chinese energy early warning model and indicators

On the basis of analyzing the influential factors of energy security,54 early warning indicators were selected from the four subsystems of coal,petroleum,electric power and comprehensive evaluation,and an energy early warning model of China was established by adopting principal component analysis and second-order regression methods.The concept of energy early warning indicator of China was proposed as well as the calculation methods and the early warning thresholds.The early warning indicators and the energy security degrees for each subsystem were calculated during the years of 1995-2007.The research results show that though at present the overall condition of Chinese energy security is turning better,it is in the state of big concern and very close to danger.There are still many uncertain elements influencing energy security.It is suggested that the energy statistics system should be more rapidly improved,and the early warning theory,methodological innovation as well as relevant positive researches should be carried out.A scientifically perfect energy contingency response scheme should be established in no time so that our ability to cope with energy emergencies can be greatly enhanced,thereby guaranteeing the energy to be used in an ample,stable,secure,clear and efficient way.