Modelling spatial choice: a review and synthesis in a migration context

This paper reviews various approaches to the modelling of spatial choice. Spatial choice modelling is viewed as a distinct area of research, within the larger field of discrete choice modelling, with a sound methodological basis and computationally tractable modelling framework. This review draws upon empirical application of spatial choice models to interregional migration and identifies the main research issues, summarizes the progress of research thus far, and suggests some paths for future research. It is argued that some of the widely used models suffer from problems derived from their development in aspatial choice contexts. Acknowledging the increased complexity and, possibly, the different choice process that spatial choice situations present over their aspatial counterparts leads to the development of the socalled competing destinations model and its variants. Evidence from empirical tests of these spatial choice models suggests that analysts engaged in interregional migration modelling risk model misspecification if they ignore the peculiarities of spatial choice.

[1]  S. Ruggles.  Integrated Public Use Microdata Series , 2021, Encyclopedia of Gerontology and Population Aging.

[2]  Kao-Lee Liaw,et al.  Nested logit model and maximum quasi-likelihood method: a flexible methodology for analyzing interregional migration patterns. , 1987, Regional science and urban economics.

[3]  A S Fotheringham,et al.  A New Set of Spatial-Interaction Models: The Theory of Competing Destinations † , 1983 .

[4]  J. Bettman.  An information processing theory of consumer choice , 1979 .

[5]  L. Sjaastad.  The Costs and Returns of Human Migration , 1962 .

[6]  J. Thill.  Modeling Store Choices with Cross-Sectional and Pooled Cross-Sectional Data: A Comparison , 1995 .

[7]  S. Fotheringham,et al.  The Impact of Space on the Application Of Discrete Choice Models , 1990 .

[8]  H. Couclelis.  A Theoretical Framework for Alternative Models of Spatial Decision and Behavior , 1986 .

[9]  James W. Pellegrino,et al.  Chapter 3 Psychological Perspectives on Spatial Cognition Thomas , 1993 .

[10]  Joel L. Horowitz,et al.  A UTILITY MAXIMIZING MODEL OF THE DEMAND FOR MULTI-DESTINATION NON-WORK TRAVEL , 1980 .

[11]  R. Duncan Luce,et al.  Individual Choice Behavior , 1959 .

[12]  Ian R. Gordon.  Economic Explanations of Spatial Variation in Distance Deterrence , 1985 .

[13]  A. Anas.  Discrete choice theory, information theory and the multinomial logit and gravity models , 1983 .

[14]  William A. V. Clark,et al.  An Empirical Test of a Joint Model of Residential Mobility and Housing Choice , 1985 .

[15]  Harry Timmermans,et al.  Applications of behavioural research on spatial problems I: cognition , 1990 .

[16]  W. G. Hansen.  How Accessibility Shapes Land Use , 1959 .

[17]  Christopher P. Puto,et al.  Adding Asymmetrically Dominated Alternatives: Violations of Regularity & the Similarity Hypothesis. , 1981 .

[18]  D. McFadden,et al.  URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND - A BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS , 1977 .

[19]  Microdata for migration analysis: A comparison of sources in the US, Britain and Canada , 1996 .

[20]  Y Ishikawa.  An Empirical Study of the Competing Destinations Model Using Japanese Interaction Data , 1987 .

[21]  H. Dreyfus.  What Computers Can't Do: The Limits of Artificial Intelligence , 1978 .

[22]  L. Lo,et al.  Spatial Structure and Spatial Interaction: A Simulation Approach , 1991 .

[23]  C. Delbruck,et al.  [The theory of migration]. , 1993, Jahrbucher fur Nationalokonomie und Statistik.

[24]  A. Anas.  Residential location markets and urban transportation : economic theory, econometrics, and policy analysis with discrete choice models , 1982 .

[25]  A. Fotheringham.  Note---Consumer Store Choice and Choice Set Definition , 1988 .

[26]  John Paul Jones,et al.  WARPED SPACE: A GEOGRAPHY OF DISTANCE DECAY* , 1991 .

[27]  A S Fotheringham,et al.  Intermetropolitan Migration and Hierarchical Destination Choice: A Disaggregate Analysis from the US Public Use Microdata Samples , 1999 .

[28]  Morton E. O'Kelly,et al.  Spatial Interaction Models:Formulations and Applications , 1988 .

[29]  Jean-Claude Thill,et al.  Choice set formation for destination choice modelling , 1992 .

[30]  H. Timmermans,et al.  Choice model specification, substitution and spatial structure effects: A simulation experiment , 1987 .

[31]  Mark D. Uncles,et al.  Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand , 1987 .

[32]  L. A. Brown,et al.  The Intra-Urban Migration Process: a Perspective , 1970 .

[33]  A. Stewart Fotheringham,et al.  Encoding Spatial Information: The Evidence for Hierarchical Processing , 1992, Spatio-Temporal Reasoning.

[34]  A. Fotheringham,et al.  Chain Image and Store-Choice Modeling: The Effects of Income and Race , 1993 .

[35]  Peter A. Rogerson,et al.  The Geographical Analysis of Population: With Applications to Planning and Business , 1994 .

[36]  P. Kanaroglou,et al.  METROPOLITAN OUTMIGRATION PATTERN OF CANADIAN LABOUR FORCE ENTRANTS, 1971–76 , 1986 .

[37]  G. Mulligan,et al.  Labor Migration Amongst Hierarchically Competing and Intervening Origins and Destinations , 1992, Environment & planning A.

[38]  Richard R. Batsell,et al.  A New Class of Market Share Models , 1985 .

[39]  Eric R. Hansen,et al.  Industrial location choice in Sao Paulo, Brazil : A nested logit model , 1987 .

[40]  K. Newbold,et al.  Return and onward migrations in Canada, 1976-1981: an explanation based on personal and ecological variables. , 1995, The Canadian geographer. Geographe canadien.

[41]  D. McFadden.  Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior , 1972 .

[42]  Robert J. Meyer,et al.  Context-Induced Parameter Instability in a Disaggregate-Stochastic Model of Store Choice , 1982 .

[43]  S. Reader,et al.  Unobserved Heterogeneity in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models , 1993 .

[44]  Jacqueline Desbarats,et al.  Spatial choice and constraints on behavior , 1983 .

[45]  J. T. Fawcett,et al.  Motivations for migration: an assessment and a value-expectancy research model. , 1981 .

[46]  H. Kawabe,et al.  The dependence of marriage migrations in Japan on personal factors and ecological variables. , 1994, Mathematical population studies.

[47]  Gordon F. Mulligan,et al.  Spatial Flows and Competing Central Places: Towards a General Theory of Hierarchical Interaction , 1990 .

[48]  A. Curtis,et al.  Large-scale information surfaces: an analysis of city-name recalls in the United States , 1995 .

[49]  Jean-Michel Guldmann,et al.  Competing destinations and intervening opportunities interaction models of inter-city telecommunication flows , 1998 .

[50]  J. Ledent,et al.  Joint effects of ecological and personal factors on elderly interprovincial migration in Canada. , 1988, The Canadian journal of regional science = La revue canadienne des sciences regionales.

[51]  A. Fotheringham,et al.  Directional Variation in Distance Decay , 1995 .

[52]  A S Fotheringham,et al.  Some Theoretical Aspects of Destination Choice and Their Relevance to Production-Constrained Gravity Models , 1983 .

[53]  J. Guldmann.  Competing destinations and intervening opportunities interaction models of inter-city telecommunication flows , 1998 .

[54]  K. Liaw,et al.  Metropolitan Out-Migration of Elderly Females in Canada: Characterization and Explanation , 1987, Environment & planning A.

[55]  S. S. Stevens.  On the psychophysical law. , 1957, Psychological review.

[56]  Yu Xie,et al.  Interstate migration of the US poverty population: Immigration “pushes” and welfare magnet “pulls” , 1996 .

[57]  A. Fotheringham,et al.  Modelling Hierarchical Destination Choice , 1986 .

[58]  L. Lo,et al.  A TRANSLOG APPROACH TO CONSUMER SPATIAL BEHAVIOR , 1990 .

[59]  R. Barff,et al.  The Operation Of Regional Labor Markets For Highly Trained Manufacturing Workers In The United States , 1991 .

[60]  Hjp Harry Timmermans,et al.  Dynamic models of choice behaviour : some fundamentals and trends , 1989 .

[61]  C. Manski.  The structure of random utility models , 1977 .