Random simulation method for accuracy test of grey prediction model

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to establish a random simulation method to compare the forecasting performance between grey prediction models, and between grey model and other kinds of prediction models. Then, the different performance of three grey models and linear regression prediction model is studied, based on the proposed method.Design/methodology/approach – A random simulation method was proposed to test the modelling accuracy of grey prediction model. This method was enlightened by Monte Carlo simulation method. It regarded a class of sequences as population, and selected a large sample from population though random sampling. Then, sample sequences were modeled by grey prediction model. Through modeling error calculation, the average error of grey model for the sample was obtained. Finally, the grey model accuracy for this kind of problem was acquired by statistical inference testing model. Through the statistical significant test method, the modeling accuracy of grey models for the same pr...