Forecasting Weather in Croatia Using ALADIN Numerical Weather Prediction Model

This chapter gives an overview on weather forecasting using the set-up of the NWP model ALADIN that is used for operational weather forecast in CMHS as an example for operation weather forecasting. ALADIN is a state-of-the-art modern NWP model. Using ALADIN we exemplarily discuss short-comings and challenges in modern operational weather forecasting. A high-resolution LAM is intended to predict the sub-synoptic weather features forced by topography or other local characteristics that can be absent in the main synoptic pattern. Successful prediction of these small-scale features enables usage of the LAM forecast in predicting the conditions important for the flight safety, vehicle road safety or navigation at sea. The operational suite has to be tuned in order to predict the high-impact weather events of local character that could be missing in the large scale forecast. The domain properties as well as the forecast model complexity are formed according to the needs of the forecast users and the computing capabilities.

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