Alignment Error Models and Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation

Abstract The concept of alternative error models is suggested as a means to redefine estimation problems with non-Gaussian additive errors so that familiar and near-optimal Gaussian-based methods may still be applied successfully. The specific example of a mixed error model including both alignment errors and additive errors is examined. Using the specific form of a soliton, an analytical solution to the Korteweg–de Vries equation, the total (additive) errors of states following the mixed error model are demonstrably non-Gaussian for large enough alignment errors, and an ensemble of such states is handled poorly by a traditional ensemble Kalman filter, even if position observations are included. Consideration of the mixed error model itself naturally suggests a two-step approach to state estimation where the alignment errors are corrected first, followed by application of an estimation scheme to the remaining additive errors, the first step aimed at removing most of the non-Gaussianity so the second step ...

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