Forecasting the future scale of vehicle to grid technology for electric vehicles and its economic value as future electric energy source: The case of South Korea

With the world seeking ways to cope with climate change, the interest in and demand for electric vehicles are increasing as part of the efforts to resolve the issue of fine dust, especially in South Korea. The Korean government has consistently announced plans to promote electric vehicles as a means of transportation by providing benefits such as subsidies for electric vehicle purchase and expansion of charging infrastructure. Meanwhile, as electric vehicles continue to grow in number, the energy industry has become attentive to its role as a resource for power generation through vehicle to grid technology. This study analyzes electric vehicle consumer preferences using the discrete choice experiment (DCE) and found that there exists a clear nested structure in Korean consumers’ choice of vehicle. The study also estimates the amount of vehicle to grid electricity supply in the power market and calculates not only national but also individual economic benefit of electric vehicle owners participating in vehicle to grid services based on the estimated amount of electricity supplied. The results of scenario analysis indicate that the estimated electric vehicle supply in Korea will be about 560,000 units cumulatively and that the vehicle to grid electric vehicle power supply scale will reach 1.81 GW by 2030. The estimation shows that the economic benefit of vehicle to grid at the national power market level is 50.9 billion KRW per year, while the economic benefit at an individual level (per vehicle) is 104,151 KRW.