San Andreas Fault Zone, California: M ≥5.5 Earthquake History

The San Andreas fault zone has been a very significant source of major California earthquakes. From 1812 to 1906 it generated four major earthquakes of M ∼7 or larger in two pairs on two major portions of the fault. A pair of major earthquakes occurred on the central to southern region, where the 1857 faulting overlapped the 1812 earthquake faulting. A pair of major earthquakes occurred on the northern region, where the 1906 faulting overlapped the 1838 earthquake faulting. Also, earthquakes of M ∼7 occurred in the San Francisco Bay area on the Hayward fault in 1868 and the Santa Cruz Mountains near Loma Prieta in 1989 and on the Imperial fault near the border with Mexico in 1940. The 1838 earthquake's damage effects throughout the Bay area, from San Francisco to Santa Clara Valley and Monterey, were unequalled by any historical earthquake other than the 1906 event. This, and numerous strong possible aftershocks during the following 3 years in the San Juan Bautista vicinity, suggest 1838 faulting from San Francisco to San Juan Bautista. Cycles of seismicity and quiescence were associated with the Bay area earthquakes of 1868, 1906, and 1989. The 1868 earthquake on the Hayward fault was preceded by 12 earthquakes of M ≥5.5 from 1855 to 1866, within 60 km of the Hayward fault, and was followed by 13 quiet years. The 1906 San Andreas fault event was preceded from 1881 to 1903 by 18 earthquakes of M ≥5.5 and was followed by quiescence, with only three earthquakes of M ≥5.5 until 1954. The Bay area has been seismically quiet at the M ≥5.5 level since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and its 1990 aftershocks, which contrasts with the 10 years before 1989, when five M 5.5–6.2 events occurred. The Loma Prieta earthquake is of similar magnitude to the 1868 Hayward event and could be followed by a similarly short quiet period. The 1857 earthquake had immediate foreshocks in the Lonoak–Bitterwater region ∼50 km northwest of Parkfield. In the northern end zone of the 1857 rupture, extending southeast from Bitterwater ∼70 km to Parkfield, the rate of seismic moment release has decreased with time since 1857. This may reflect the decay with time of the stress loading due to the ∼9 m 1857 fault displacements ∼80 km southeast of Parkfield and explain why the predicted earthquake, which was based on the assumption of regular recurrence of Parkfield earthquakes, has not yet occurred. The extent of the 1812 earthquake fault rupture is not well defined. Jacoby et al. (1988) estimated that it extended ∼170 km from Cajon Pass to Tejon Pass. Based on this estimate, we present the hypothesis that the rupture occurred in two segments in December 1812. The eastern segment generated the 8 December earthquake that damaged San Juan Capistrano, San Gabriel, San Fernando, and San Buenaventura. Thirteen days later the western segment ruptured generating the earthquake that damaged San Fernando and San Buenaventura again, as well as Santa Barbara, Santa Ynez, and Purisima Concepcion.

[1]  Andrea Donnellan,et al.  1855 and 1991 surveys of the San Andreas fault: Implications for fault mechanics , 1994, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[2]  Thomas V. McEvilly,et al.  Recurrence models and Parkfield, California, earthquakes , 1984 .

[3]  D. Wells,et al.  New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement , 1994, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[4]  D. P. Schwartz,et al.  Re-evaluation of 1906 surface faulting, geomorphic expression, and seismic hazard along the San Andres fault in the Southern Santa Cruz mountains , 1991, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[5]  Thomas H. Heaton,et al.  Inversion of strong ground motion and teleseismic waveform data for the fault rupture history of the 1979 Imperial Valley, California, earthquake , 1983 .

[6]  T. Hanks,et al.  M ≧ 6 earthquakes in southern California during the twentieth century: No evidence for a seismicity or moment deficit , 1998, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[7]  T. J. Powers,et al.  Paleoseismic investigations in the Santa Cruz mountains, California: Implications for recurrence of large‐magnitude earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault , 1998 .

[8]  T. Rockwell,et al.  Evidence for two surface ruptures in the past 500 years on the San Andreas fault at Frazier Mountain, California , 2002 .

[9]  S. Sipkin.  Moment-tensor solutions for the 24 November 1987 Superstition Hills, California, earthquakes , 1989 .

[10]  E. M. Stone,et al.  Displacement across the Cholame Segment of the San Andreas Fault between 1855 and 1893 from Cadastral Surveys , 2002 .

[11]  C. W. Stover,et al.  Seismicity of the United States, 1568-1989 (revised) , 1993 .

[12]  Allan G. Lindh,et al.  Preliminary assessment of long-term probabilities for large earthquakes along selected fault segments of the San Andreas fault system, California , 1983 .

[13]  H. Kanamori,et al.  Rupture patterns and preshocks of large earthquakes in the southern San Jacinto fault zone , 1986 .

[14]  K. Clahan,et al.  Paleoseismic studies of the San Francisco Peninsula segment of the San Andreas Fault zone near Woodside, California , 1999 .

[15]  L. Sykes,et al.  Re-evaluation of several large historic earthquakes in the vicinity of the Loma Prieta and peninsular segments of the San Andreas fault, California , 1992 .

[16]  W. Bakun,et al.  Earthquakes near Parkfield, California: Comparing the 1934 and 1966 Sequences , 1979, Science.

[17]  D. P. Schwartz,et al.  A 100-Year Average Recurrence Interval for the San Andreas Fault at Wrightwood, California , 1993, Science.

[18]  David R. Brillinger,et al.  A more precise chronology of earthquakes produced by the San Andreas fault in southern California , 1989 .

[19]  Harry Fielding Reid,et al.  The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906: Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission ... , 2010 .

[20]  William L. Ellsworth,et al.  Earthquake history, 1769-1989 , 1990 .

[21]  W. Goetzmann.  Army exploration in the American West, 1803-1863 , 1960 .

[22]  W. Bakun.  Seismicity of California's north coast , 2000 .

[23]  Andrew C. Lawson,et al.  The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906 , 1910 .

[24]  Harry O. Wood,et al.  The 1857 earthquake in California , 1955 .

[25]  L. Sykes,et al.  Triggering of 1812 Santa Barbara Earthquake by a Great San Andreas Shock: Implications for future seismic hazards in southern California , 1996 .

[26]  T. Rockwell,et al.  Late quaternary activity of the Laguna Salada fault in northern Baja California, Mexico , 1995 .

[27]  W. Bakun.  Seismic activity of the San Francisco Bay region , 1999, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[28]  G. D. Louderback.  The reputed destructive earthquake of January 16–18, 1840 , 1944 .

[29]  K. Sieh,et al.  Disturbance of trees by the 1857 Fort Tejon Earthquake, California , 1980 .

[30]  C. M. Poley.  The San Ardo, California, earthquake of 24 November 1985 , 1988 .

[31]  T. Toppozada.  Earthquake magnitude as a function of intensity data in California and Western Nevada , 1975 .

[32]  W. H. Bakun,et al.  Estimating earthquake location and magnitude from seismic intensity data , 1997, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[33]  Duncan Carr Agnew,et al.  A documentary study of the felt effects of the great California earthquake of 1857 , 1978 .

[34]  Evaluation of recurrence intervals, characteristic earthquakes, and slip rates associated with thrusting along the Coast Range-Central Valley geomorphic boundary, California , 1994 .

[35]  Yun‐tai Chen,et al.  International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology , 2004 .

[36]  Yehuda Ben-Zion,et al.  Interaction of the San Andreas Fault Creeping Segment with Adjacent great rupture zones and earthquake recurrence at Parkfield , 1993 .

[37]  Lucile M. Jones,et al.  Local magnitudes and apparent variations in seismicity rates in Southern California , 1993 .

[38]  T. Hanks,et al.  Seismic Slip Distribution along the San Jacinto Fault Zone, Southern California, and Its Implications , 1975 .

[39]  L. Sykes,et al.  "Probabilities of occurrence of large plate rupturing earthquakes for the San Andreas, San Jacinto, and Imperial faults, California,1983–2003"" , 1984 .

[40]  D. Dreger,et al.  The Mw 5.1 San Juan Bautista, California earthquake of 12 August 1998 , 1999 .

[41]  T. Toppozada,et al.  Preparation of isoseismal maps and summaries of reported effects for pre-1900 California earthquakes , 1981 .

[42]  Yijun Du,et al.  How similar were the 1934 and 1966 Parkfield Earthquakes , 1993 .

[43]  R. Arrowsmith,et al.  Potential for Earthquake Rupture and M 7 Earthquakes Along the Parkfield, Cholame, and Carrizo Segments of the San Andreas Fault , 1997 .

[44]  A. Nur,et al.  Proceedings of the Conference on Tectonic Problems of the San Andreas Fault System , 1973 .

[45]  J. Dolan,et al.  Paleoseismologic Evidence for a Very Large (Mw >7), Post-A.D. 1660 Surface Rupture on the Eastern San Cayetano Fault, Ventura County, California: Was This the Elusive Source of the Damaging 21 December 1812 Earthquake? , 2001 .

[46]  G. D. Louderback.  Central California earthquakes of the 1830's , 1947 .

[47]  Maxwell W. Allen,et al.  Descriptive catalog of earthquakes of the Pacific Coast of the United States 1769 to 1928 , 1939 .

[48]  Lynn R. Sykes,et al.  Evolution of moderate seismicity in the San Francisco Bay region, 1850 to 1993: Seismicity changes related to the occurrence of large and great earthquakes , 1996 .

[49]  T. Toppozada,et al.  Re-evaluation of the 1836 “Hayward fault” and the 1838 San Andreas fault earthquakes , 1998, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[50]  A re-examination of the 1947 Manix, California, earthquake sequence and comparison to other sequences within the Mojave block , 1990 .

[51]  C. Strand.  Pre-1900 earthquakes of Baja California and San Diego County , 1980 .

[52]  T. Hanks,et al.  Seismic Moments of the Larger Earthquakes of the Southern California Region , 1975 .

[53]  B. Gutenberg,et al.  Seismicity of the Earth and associated phenomena , 1950, MAUSAM.

[54]  J. Mori,et al.  Earthquakes in California and Nevada , 1994 .

[55]  C. R. Allen,et al.  Seismicity of the Southern California region : 1 January 1932 to 31 December 1972 , 1973 .

[56]  W. H. Bakun,et al.  The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment , 1985, Science.

[57]  K. Sieh.  Central California foreshocks of the great 1857 earthquake , 1978 .

[58]  W. Bakun.  Magnitudes and moments of duration , 1984 .

[59]  C. Nicholson.  Seismic behavior of the southern San Andreas fault zone in the northern Coachella Valley, California: Comparison of the 1948 and 1986 earthquake sequences , 1996, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[60]  J. Lander,et al.  Tsunamis Affecting the West Coast of the United States: 1806-1992 , 1993 .

[61]  David J. Wald,et al.  Foreshocks and aftershocks of the great 1857 California earthquake , 1999 .

[62]  K. Sieh,et al.  Irregular Recurrence of Large Earthquakes Along the San Andreas Fault: Evidence from Trees , 1988, Science.

[63]  T. Wilson.  Narrative of a voyage round the world , 1968 .

[64]  P. Segall,et al.  Slip in the 1868 Hayward earthquake from the analysis of historical triangulation data , 1996 .

[65]  Lisa B. Grant,et al.  Uncharacteristic Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault , 1996, Science.

[66]  Kerry E Sieh,et al.  Slip along the San Andreas fault associated with the great 1857 earthquake , 1984 .

[67]  R. E. Wallace,et al.  The Parkfield-Cholame, California, earthquakes of June-August 1966 - surface geologic effects, water-resources aspects, and preliminary seismic data , 1967 .

[68]  H. Kanamori,et al.  A moment magnitude scale , 1979 .

[69]  R. E. Wallace.  The San Andreas Fault System, California , 1990 .