论文信息 - Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell

Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell

Major shifts in the business environment can make whole investment strategies obsolete. In order to anticipate such shifts, the Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies uses scenario analysis, a method it pioneered three decades ago. Given that most investments are irreversible, scenario planning can be combined with real options analysis to help identify options in the future; help time the decision to exercise a real option; and provide an important input in the process of evaluating real options.

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