Fragility analysis for ballistic design

Abstract Effective structural design to resist ballistic effects such as small arms or fragmenting weapons has been a goal since weapons were developed. Approaches currently in use for ballistic design are predominantly deterministic and allow designers to decide what wall thickness should be used to stop a prescribed projectile impacting at a predefined velocity. The research presented in this paper provides a framework for conducting reliability analysis of structures subjected to bullet and fragment demands. Thus, pseudo-fragility curves are developed for the limit states related to spall and perforation of wall panels, residual velocities of bullets and fragments, and injury to personnel. The pseudo-fragility analysis provides engineers and owners with a tool to quickly assess the reliability of a wall system subjected to high velocity, low mass projectiles. In particular, the proposed analysis method allows designers and owners to determine the probability of spall and perforation, residual velocity, and injury as a function of wall thickness or threat standoff distance. Abbreviations: Cumulative distribution function (CDF): Gives the probability that a stochastic variable ‘X’, with a proper probability density function, is equal to or less than a value (x). Coefficient of variation (COV): The quotient of the standard deviation and the mean

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