Evidence of Enhanced Precipitation Due to Irrigation over the Great Plains of the United States

[1] At the end of World War II, there was a rapid increase in irrigation over the Ogallala Aquifer in the Great Plains of the United States via groundwater withdrawal, and we hypothesize that this disruption of the local hydrological cycle has enhanced the regional precipitation. We examined station and gridded precipitation observations for the warm season months over and downwind of the Ogallala over the 20th century. Increases in precipitation of 15–30% were detected during July from the easternmost part of the aquifer to as far downwind as Indiana. The timing (1940s, July) and spatial pattern of the precipitation increase are consistent with the history of Ogallala irrigation and mechanisms by which increases in evapotranspiration can affect convection. Additionally, we conducted a vapor tracking analysis and found that evapotranspiration over the Ogallala Aquifer contributes to downwind precipitation and that the contribution is greater when the evapotranspiration is higher. This makes it hydrologically possible that the irrigation development was associated with the observed precipitation increases. Finally, there is no clear evidence that atmospheric circulation changes or modes of internal climate variability increased the July precipitation. Further analysis of the influence of Ogallala irrigation on precipitation will include the controlled analysis of climate model simulations that explicitly include irrigation.

[1]  William J. Sacks,et al.  Effects of global irrigation on the near-surface climate , 2009 .

[2]  D. Randall,et al.  Effects of model resolution and subgrid-scale physics on the simulation of precipitation in the continental United States , 2004 .

[3]  Thomas L. Mote,et al.  Spatial variability and trends in observed snow depth over North America , 2006 .

[4]  Roger A. Pielke,et al.  USE OF USGS‐PROVIDED DATA TO IMPROVE WEATHERAND CLIMATE SIMULATIONS , 1997 .

[5]  S. Klein,et al.  GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics , 2006 .

[6]  Yongqiang Liu,et al.  Three-dimensional numerical study of shallow convective clouds and precipitation induced by land surface forcing , 1996 .

[7]  F. Dominguez,et al.  Impact of Atmospheric Moisture Storage on Precipitation Recycling , 2006 .

[8]  S. Schubert,et al.  An Assessment of the Predictability of Northern Winter Seasonal Means with the NSIPP 1 AGCM , 2000 .

[9]  D. Toll,et al.  Simulating the Effects of Irrigation over the United States in a Land Surface Model Based on Satellite-Derived Agricultural Data , 2010 .

[10]  A. Holtslag,et al.  Influence of Soil Moisture on Boundary Layer Cloud Development , 2004 .

[11]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century , 2003 .

[12]  V. Pope,et al.  The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3 , 2000 .

[13]  R. Walko,et al.  Sensitivity of model‐simulated summertime precipitation over the Mississippi River Basin to the spatial distribution of initial soil moisture , 2003 .

[14]  A. N. PETTrrr.  A Non-parametric Approach to the Change-point Problem , 1979 .

[15]  David B. Lobell,et al.  The Effect of Irrigation on Regional Temperatures: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Trends in California, 1934–2002 , 2008 .

[16]  David B. Lobell,et al.  Irrigation cooling effect on temperature and heat index extremes , 2008 .

[17]  K. Findell.  Atmospheric Controls on Soil Moisture-Boundary Layer Interactions , 2001 .

[18]  T. Zobeck,et al.  In search of sustainable agricultural systems for the Llano Estacado of the U.S. Southern High Plains , 2008 .

[19]  R. E. Livezey,et al.  Statistical Field Significance and its Determination by Monte Carlo Techniques , 1983 .

[20]  S. Nigam,et al.  Seasonal Hydroclimate Variability over North America in Global and Regional Reanalyses and AMIP Simulations: Varied Representation , 2006 .

[21]  W. Steffen,et al.  Human modification of global water vapor flows from the land surface. , 2005, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[22]  Randal D. Koster,et al.  On the Cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl , 2004, Science.

[23]  D. Lawrence,et al.  Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation , 2004, Science.

[24]  Paul T. Schickedanz,et al.  The Effect of Irrigation on Warm Season Precipitation in the Southern Great Plains. , 1984 .

[25]  R. Pielke.  Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus Convective rainfall , 2001 .

[26]  Zeng‐Zhen Hu,et al.  Interferential Impact of ENSO and PDO on Dry and Wet Conditions in the U.S. Great Plains , 2009 .

[27]  Emma Vere-Jones,et al.  The impact of the new , 2007 .

[28]  R. Pielke.  “Use of USGS-provided data to improve weather and climate simulations” , 1997 .

[29]  P. Gowda,et al.  Irrigation in the Texas High Plains: a brief history and potential reductions in demand , 2009 .

[30]  S. Schubert,et al.  Warm Season Variations in the Low-Level Circulation and Precipitation over the Central United States in Observations, AMIP Simulations, and Idealized SST Experiments , 2009 .

[31]  O. Boucher,et al.  Direct human influence of irrigation on atmospheric water vapour and climate , 2004 .

[32]  W. Briggs.  Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences , 2007 .

[33]  Moti Segal,et al.  On the Potential Impact of Irrigated Areas in North America on Summer Rainfall Caused by Large-Scale Systems , 1998 .

[34]  E. Servat,et al.  Analysis of the temporal variability of runoff in Ivory Coast : statistical approach and phenomena characterization , 1996 .

[35]  Irrigation increases rainfall? , 1975, Science.

[36]  V. L. McGuire.  Water-Level Changes in the High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 2007, 2005-06, and 2006-07 , 2009 .

[37]  Daniel S. Wilks,et al.  Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction , 1995 .

[38]  David D. Parrish,et al.  NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL REANALYSIS , 2006 .

[39]  S. Changnon.  Thunderstorm Rainfall in the Conterminous United States , 2001 .

[40]  P. Dirmeyer,et al.  The “Maya Express”: Floods in the U.S. Midwest , 2009 .

[41]  Koen De Ridder,et al.  Land Surface-Induced Regional Climate Change in Southern Israel , 1998 .

[42]  F. Dominguez,et al.  Spatial extent of the North American Monsoon: Increased cross‐regional linkages via atmospheric pathways , 2009 .

[43]  Ingrid M. Verstraeten,et al.  Water in storage and approaches to ground-water management, High Plains aquifer, 2000 , 2003 .

[44]  Stuart Rojstaczer,et al.  Irrigation-Induced Rainfall and the Great Plains , 2001 .

[45]  R. Hammer.  CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND DISTRIBUTION AROUND KHARTOUM , 1970 .

[46]  Water-Level Changes in the High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 2007, 2005-06, and 2006-07 , 2009 .

[47]  S. Rojstaczer,et al.  Irrigation's influence on precipitation: Texas High Plains, U.S.A. , 2002 .