Modelling Ecosystem Processes and Patterns for Multiple-Use Management

The progression of natural resource management is reviewed from a focus on the output of products considered independently to function-oriented ecosystem management. The challenges of this paradigm shift for ecosystem modelling are identified, including needs to simulate interactions among multiple components, effects of climatic change and stochastic disturbances, long-term ecosystem development, and human dimensions. The shortcomings of the timber growth and yield models traditionally used in forestry are identified and evaluated. The potential value of process-based ecosystem models as tools for simulating ecosystem processes and patterns is discussed in light of recent developments in landscape ecology, GIS and spatial modelling. The need to integrate ecosystem models, socio-economic models, and decision analysis models in integrated spatial decision-support systems should determine the future direction of natural resource modelling.

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