Comparison of space debris estimates

Debris is thought to be a hazard to space systems through impact and cascading. The current environment is assessed as not threatening to defense systems. Projected reductions in launch rates to LEO should delay concerns for centuries. There is agreement between AFSPC and NASA analyses on catalogs and collision rates, but not on fragmentation rates. Experiments in the laboratory, field, and space are consistent with AFSPC estimates of the number of fragments per collision. A more careful treatment of growth rates greatly reduces long-term stability issues. Space debris has not been shown to be an issue in coming centuries; thus, it does not appear necessary for the Air Force to take additional steps to mitigate it.