Fine particle emissions, emission reduction potential and reduction costs in Finland in 2020

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the atmosphere have been associated with severe human health effects. This report explores future emissions of primary PM2.5, their reduction potential and related reduction costs in Finland. One activity pathway of 2020 of the Finnish Climate Strategy was studied with two different PM emission control utilization scenarios: (1) “Baseline” which involves PM control technology utilization complying with current legislation, and (2) “Reduction” which assumes the use of maximum technically and economically feasible emission reduction measures. The studied sectors included stationary combustion and industrial activities. The work was performed using the Finnish Regional Emission Scenario (FRES) model of Finnish environment institute (SYKE). Total emission reduction potential below “Baseline” was estimated at 6.7 Gg(PM2.5) a -1, or 22% of the total emissions. The biggest relatively cost-efficient reductions (marginal cost below 5000 € Mg-1) can be achieved by the use of small electrostatic precipitators (ESPs) in domestic wood log boilers, 2.0 Gg a-1. In large-scale combustion installations in power plants and industry the reduction of 1.2 Gg a-1 is possible by fabric filter installations instead of ESPs. A comparable reduction with slightly higher costs can be achieved in small (below 5 MWth) industrial boilers by the introduction of ESPs. For industrial processes potential occurs in few individual plants. The uncertainties in emission reduction and cost estimates are biggest for domestic combustion and industrial processes. This report presents cost-efficiency estimates of future emission reductions per mass of PM2.5 reduced. However, the magnitude of health benefits gained from emission reductions are different for different emission sources, depending on e.g. the altitude of emission release, the emission location in relation to the location of population etc. The results of this study are used in the integrated assessment modeling framework developed in the KOPRA project in order to link the information of emission reductions and costs, atmospheric dispersion and induced health impacts.