Multi-Scale Modeling of the Air and Space Operations Center

The goal of this effort is to use multi-scale modeling to understand the effect of operatorenvironment interaction and the global environment on Air and Space Operations Center (AOC) processes. Models were developed at 3 scales, including: 1) Operator interaction with computer interface (Agent-based model); 2) Processing of Time Sensitive Targets (TST, Petri net model); and 3) Mission-scale objectives, strategy, and processes, including adversary response and global and US public perception (System Dynamics model). An existing Petri net model of the operational architecture of the AOC was updated for this study; all models were developed with subject matter experts. Petri nets are well-suited for modeling systems that consist of a number of processes that communicate and need synchronization. The focus of the Petri net process model is critical event response time and manpower utilization. These measures of operation are computed and passed to the System Dynamics model. Information overflow indicators for operators (e.g., operator stress) and the effect of operator reduction on critical event processing both have high degrees of interdependence with the overall time critical event processing, and were found to be critical future research areas during the Joint Expeditionary Forces Experiment (JEFX) in 2006. AOC process models often focus on making operations as efficient as possible. However, without factoring in the global environment in which the AOC operates, locally optimum procedures may result in solutions that are not optimal for the global scale. The System Dynamics model runs over a time horizon appropriate for long term strategic planning. The focus is on the mission-scale (i.e., Joint Force Objectives, political decision making, social support level), which might require a time horizon of 10, 30, or 365 days, for example. Events and behaviors that unfold in the System Dynamics model are then passed back to the Petri net model. The AOC process model is linked to the System Dynamics model through the variables average response time and maximum personnel utilization. The variable average response time drives the effectiveness of destroying adversary resources in the System Dynamics model, while the variable maximum personnel utilization is used to drive the probability of major errors in prosecution. The System Dynamics model is linked to the AOC Petri net process model through the variable event data stream, which generates event streams for five different event types to be processed in the AOC model.