The limits of anchoring.

Anchoring and adjustment is a pervasive bias in which decision makers are influenced by random or uninformative numbers or starting points. As a means of understanding this effect, we explore two limits on anchoring. In Experiments 1 and 2, implausibly extreme anchors had a proportionally smaller effect than anchors close to the expected value of the lotteries evaluated. In Experiments 2 and 3, anchoring occurred only if the anchor and preference judgment were expressed on the same scale. Incompatible anchors and response modes resulted in no anchoring bias. A confirmatory search mechanism is proposed to account for these results.

[1]  D. R. Brown,et al.  Stimulus-similarity and the anchoring of subjective scales. , 1953, The American journal of psychology.

[2]  P. Slovic,et al.  Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions. , 1971 .

[3]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[4]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  The halo effect: Evidence for unconscious alteration of judgments. , 1977 .

[5]  A. Tversky Features of Similarity , 1977 .

[6]  G. Pitz,et al.  Judgment and decision: theory and application. , 1984, Annual review of psychology.

[7]  P. Schoemaker,et al.  Probability Versus Certainty Equivalence Methods in Utility Measurement: Are they Equivalent? , 1985 .

[8]  D. Cervone,et al.  Anchoring, Efficacy and Action: The Influence of Judgmental Heuristics on Self-Efficacy Judgments a , 1986 .

[9]  Stephen J. Hoch,et al.  An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Spousal Predictions , 1986 .

[10]  G. Northcraft,et al.  Experts, amateurs, and real estate: An anchoring-and-adjustment perspective on property pricing decisions , 1987 .

[11]  A. Tversky,et al.  Contingent weighting in judgment and choice , 1988 .

[12]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Cognitive processes in preference reversals , 1989 .

[13]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Bias in utility assessments: further evidence and explanations , 1989 .

[14]  B. Carlson Anchoring and adjustment in judgments under risk. , 1990 .

[15]  D. Kahneman Reference points, anchors, norms, and mixed feelings. , 1992 .

[16]  Jerome R. Busemeyer,et al.  Linking together different measures of preference: A dynamic model of matching derived from decision field theory , 1992 .

[17]  G. W. Fischer,et al.  Strategy compatibility, scale compatibility, and the prominence effect. , 1993 .

[18]  S. Hawkins,et al.  Information Processing Strategies in Riskless Preference Reversals: The Prominence Effect , 1994 .

[19]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Preference Reversals in Monetary and Life Expectancy Evaluations , 1995 .