Probabilistic assessment of surface level seismic hazard in India using topographic gradient as a proxy for site condition

Abstract This paper presents spatial variation of seismic hazard at the surface level for India, covering 6–38° N and 68–98° E. The most recent knowledge on seismic activity in the region has been used to evaluate the hazard incorporating uncertainties associated with the seismicity parameters using different modeling methodologies. Three types of seismic source models, viz. linear sources, gridded seismicity model and areal sources, were considered to model the seismic sources and different sets of ground motion prediction equations were used for different tectonic provinces to characterize the attenuation properties. The hazard estimation at bedrock level has been carried out using probabilistic approach and the results obtained from various methodologies were combined in a logic tree framework. The seismic site characterization of India was done using topographic slope map derived from Digital Elevation Model data. This paper presents estimation of the hazard at surface level, using appropriate site amplification factors corresponding to various site classes based on V S30 values derived from the topographic gradient. Spatial variation of surface level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) for return periods of 475 years and 2475 years are presented as contour maps.

[1]  D. Wald,et al.  On the Use of High-Resolution Topographic Data as a Proxy for Seismic Site Conditions (VS30) , 2009 .

[2]  Tapan K. Sen,et al.  Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis , 2009 .

[3]  S. Nath,et al.  Peak ground motion predictions in India: an appraisal for rock sites , 2011 .

[4]  Andrzej Kijko,et al.  Estimation of the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude, mmax , 2004 .

[5]  M. Kumar,et al.  The rapid drift of the Indian tectonic plate , 2007, Nature.

[6]  T. G. Sitharam,et al.  Mapping of Average Shear Wave Velocity for Bangalore Region: A Case Study , 2008 .

[7]  R. Iyengar,et al.  Estimation of seismic spectral acceleration in Peninsular India , 2007 .

[8]  G. Ramana,et al.  Dynamic soil properties for microzonation of Delhi, India , 2008 .

[9]  U. Chandra.  Earthquakes of peninsular India—a seismotectonic study , 1977 .

[10]  John Douglas,et al.  Ground-Motion Prediction Equations Based on Data from the Himalayan and Zagros Regions , 2009 .

[11]  R. Sinha,et al.  Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Estimation for Peninsular India , 2007 .

[12]  K. K. S. Thingbaijam,et al.  Earthquake hazard in Northeast India — A seismic microzonation approach with typical case studies from Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city , 2008 .

[13]  H. Thio,et al.  Attenuation Relations of Strong Ground Motion in Japan Using Site Classification Based on Predominant Period , 2006 .

[14]  2001 Bhuj, India, Earthquake Engineering Seismoscope Recordings and Eastern North America Ground-Motion Attenuation Relations , 2003 .

[15]  C. Lee,et al.  Ground-Motion Attenuation Relationships for Subduction-Zone Earthquakes in Northeastern Taiwan , 2008 .

[16]  T. Sitharam,et al.  Spatial variation of seismicity parameters across India and adjoining areas , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[17]  S. V. Desikachar.  A Review of the Tectonic and Geological History of Eastern India in Terms of 'Plate Tectonics' Theory , 1974 .

[18]  L. Malagnini,et al.  Ground-Motion Scaling in the Kachchh Basin, India, Deduced from Aftershocks of the 2001 Mw 7.6 Bhuj Earthquake , 2004 .

[19]  Gail M. Atkinson,et al.  Empirical Ground-Motion Relations for Subduction-Zone Earthquakes and Their Application to Cascadia and Other Regions , 2003 .

[20]  B. A. Petrushevsky.  Earthquakes and Tectonics , 1970 .

[21]  Jayan S Vinod,et al.  Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore , 2009 .

[22]  David M. Boore,et al.  Peak horizontal acceleration and velocity from strong motion records including records from the 1979 Imperial Valley, California, earthquake , 1981 .

[23]  Gail M. Atkinson,et al.  Earthquake Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Eastern North America , 2006 .

[24]  N. Abrahamson,et al.  On the Use of Logic Trees for Ground-Motion Prediction Equations in Seismic-Hazard Analysis , 2005 .

[25]  Stefan Wiemer,et al.  A Software Package to Analyze Seismicity: ZMAP , 2001 .

[26]  R. N. Iyengar,et al.  Microzonation of earthquake hazard in Greater Delhi area , 2004 .

[27]  P. Evans.  The Tectonic Framework of Assam , 1964 .

[28]  A. Boominathan,et al.  Seismic hazard assessment of Chennai city considering local site effects , 2008 .

[29]  James Ni,et al.  Seismotectonics of the Zagros continental collision zone and a comparison with the Himalayas , 1986 .

[30]  K. Campbell,et al.  Updated Near-Source Ground-Motion (Attenuation) Relations for the Horizontal and Vertical Components of Peak Ground Acceleration and Acceleration Response Spectra , 2003 .

[31]  J. Kayal.  Microearthquake Seismology and Seismotectonics of South Asia , 2008 .

[32]  A. Frankel.  Mapping Seismic Hazard in the Central and Eastern United States , 1995 .

[33]  Roger D. Borcherdt,et al.  Effects of local geological conditions in the San Francisco Bay region on ground motions and the intensities of the 1906 earthquake , 1976, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[34]  Robert J. Budnitz,et al.  Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Guidance on uncertainty and use of experts , 1997 .

[35]  G. Atkinson,et al.  Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for the Average Horizontal Component of PGA, PGV, and 5%-Damped PSA at Spectral Periods between 0.01 s and 10.0 s , 2008 .

[36]  T. G. Sitharam,et al.  Estimation of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for South India with local site effects: probabilistic approach , 2009 .

[37]  I. D. Gupta,et al.  THE STATE OF THE ART IN SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS , 2002 .

[38]  W. K. Mohanty,et al.  First Order Seismic Microzonation of Haldia, Bengal Basin (India) Using a GIS Platform , 2008 .

[39]  S. T. G. Raghu Kanth,et al.  Seismic hazard estimation for Mumbai city , 2006 .

[40]  Harsh K. Gupta,et al.  A probabilistic seismic hazard map of India and adjoining regions , 1999 .

[41]  T. Sitharam,et al.  Characterization of Regional Seismic Source Zones in and around India , 2012 .

[42]  Julian J. Bommer,et al.  Uncertainty about the uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis , 2003 .

[43]  G. Woo.  Kernel estimation methods for seismic hazard area source modeling , 1996, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[44]  Ivan G. Wong,et al.  Ground-Motion Attenuation Relationships for Cascadia Subduction Zone Megathrust Earthquakes Based on a Stochastic Finite-Fault Model , 2002 .

[45]  T. G. Sitharam,et al.  Evaluation of spatial variation of peak horizontal acceleration and spectral acceleration for south India: a probabilistic approach , 2011 .

[46]  Timothy J. Sullivan,et al.  Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses for Ground Motions and Fault Displacement at Yucca Mountain, Nevada , 2001 .

[47]  J. Bommer,et al.  Empirical Equations for the Prediction of PGA, PGV, and Spectral Accelerations in Europe, the Mediterranean Region, and the Middle East , 2010 .

[48]  S. T. Algermissen,et al.  A probabilistic estimate of maximum acceleration in rock in the contiguous United States , 1976 .

[49]  Nationwide site amplification zoning using GIS-based Japan Engineering Geomorphologic Classification Map , 2005 .

[50]  PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS AND ESTIMATION OF SPECTRAL STRONG GROUND MOTION ON BED ROCK IN NORTH EAST INDIA , 2006 .

[51]  I. Gupta.  Delineation of probable seismic sources in India and neighbourhood by a comprehensive analysis of seismotectonic characteristics of the region , 2006 .

[52]  I. Gupta.  Response spectral attenuation relations for in-slab earthquakes in Indo-Burmese subduction zone , 2010 .

[53]  S. T. Algermissen,et al.  A seismic hazard map of India and adjacent areas , 1984 .