Hindsight bias: Self-flattery or cognitive error?

Both motivational and cognitive accounts have been proposed for hindsight bias. In an experiment three groups of subjects analyzed a complex business case. One group received no outcome information. The other groups were told the outcome of the decisions made in the case. One group believed that the outcome they were given was real, the other saw the outcome generated by the toss of a coin. Both groups showed large and equal hindsight shifts on a post-analysis questionnaire. This finding appears to weaken a self-flattery explanation of hindsight shift, and gives support to a cognitive account.

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