A Beta-logistic Model for the Analysis of Sequential Labor Force Participation by Married Women

In this paper, we discuss statistical problems that arise in studying sequences of quantal responses (e.g., labor force participation) in panel data on heterogeneous populations (i.e., populations in which there is unobserved variation in response probabilities). Assuming that response probabilities are governed by a beta distribution, we derive a generalization on of the cross-section logit model to enable it to deal with sequences of discrete events in panel data. This model is applied to panel data on labor force participation of married women. One of our findings is that the distribution of participation probabilities is U shaped, indicating that most women have participation probabilities near zero or near one.

[1]  L. A. Goodman.  The Multivariate Analysis of Qualitative Data: Interactions among Multiple Classifications , 1970 .

[2]  F. F. Stephan,et al.  The Industrial Mobility of Labor as a Probability Process by I. Blumen, M. Kogan, Ph. J. McCarthy. Cornell Studies in Industrial and Labor Relations, Vol. VI. Ithaca, Cornell University, 1955, XII p. 163 p., $ 2.00. , 1956, Bulletin de l'Institut de recherches économiques et sociales.

[3]  J. Heckman.  Shadow prices, market wages, and labor supply , 1974 .

[4]  Jane Menken,et al.  Mathematical Models of Conception and Birth , 1974 .

[5]  R. Hall.  Turnover in the Labor Force , 1972 .

[6]  Y. Ben-Porath,et al.  Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Supply of Labor , 1973, Journal of Political Economy.

[7]  G. Becker,et al.  The Allocation of Time and Goods Over the Life Cycle , 1975 .

[8]  Leo A. Goodman,et al.  Statistical Methods for the Mover-Stayer Model , 1961 .

[9]  S. Spilerman,et al.  The Analysis of Mobility Processes by the Introduction of Independent Variables into a Markov Chain , 1972 .

[10]  J. Kiefer,et al.  CONSISTENCY OF THE MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATOR IN THE PRESENCE OF INFINITELY MANY INCIDENTAL PARAMETERS , 1956 .

[11]  D. McFadden.  Quantal Choice Analysis: A Survey , 1976 .

[12]  J. Heckman,et al.  Estimation of a Stochastic Model of Reproduction: An Econometric Approach , 1974 .

[13]  A. Zellner.  An Introduction to Bayesian Inference in Econometrics , 1971 .

[14]  F. F. Stephan,et al.  The Industrial Mobility of Labor as a Probability Process , 1957 .

[15]  S. James Press,et al.  Univariate and Multivariate Log-Linear and Logistic Models , 1973 .

[16]  F. Nold,et al.  Welfare Dependency and Low Income Labor Markets [and] A Markov Model of Turnover in Aid-to-Families with Dependent Children. , 1975 .

[17]  G. Becker,et al.  A Theory of the Allocation of Time , 1965 .