Predicted effects of climate change on potential sources of non‐indigenous marine species

We compare the present‐day global ocean climate with future climatologies based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models and examine whether changes in global ocean climate will affect the environmental similarity of New Zealand's (NZ) coastal environments to those of the rest of the world. Our underlying rationale is that environmental changes to source and recipient regions may result in changes to the risk of non‐indigenous species survival and establishment.

[1]  I. M. Johnstone,et al.  PLANT INVASION WINDOWS: A TIME‐BASED CLASSIFICATION OF INVASION POTENTIAL , 1986 .

[2]  Graeme Kelleher,et al.  A Global representative system of marine protected areas , 1995 .

[3]  James T. Carlton,et al.  Pattern, process, and prediction in marine invasion ecology , 1996 .

[4]  E. Grosholz,et al.  Global Invasions of Marine and Estuarine Habitats by Non-Indigenous Species: Mechanisms, Extent, and Consequences' , 1997 .

[5]  D. Simberloff,et al.  BIOTIC INVASIONS: CAUSES, EPIDEMIOLOGY, GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES, AND CONTROL , 2000 .

[6]  K. R. Clarke,et al.  Change in marine communities : an approach to statistical analysis and interpretation , 2001 .

[7]  F. Rahel Homogenization of Freshwater Faunas , 2002 .

[8]  O. Hoegh‐Guldberg,et al.  Ecological responses to recent climate change , 2002, Nature.

[9]  Daniel Simberloff,et al.  What are invasive species , 2009 .

[10]  Steve W. Adkins,et al.  Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive alien plant: Acacia nilotica ssp. indica in Australia , 2003 .

[11]  P. Moyle,et al.  ALIEN FISHES IN CALIFORNIA WATERSHEDS: CHARACTERISTICS OF SUCCESSFUL AND FAILED INVADERS , 2004 .

[12]  Keith W. Dixon,et al.  Intercomparison of the Southern Ocean Circulations in IPCC Coupled Model Control Simulations , 2006 .

[13]  A. Occhipinti‐Ambrogi Global change and marine communities: alien species and climate change. , 2007, Marine pollution bulletin.

[14]  S. Barry,et al.  Are there any consistent predictors of invasion success? , 2008, Biological Invasions.

[15]  Erratum: (Journal of Climate (2006)) , 2007 .

[16]  L. Herborg,et al.  Predicting invasion risk using measures of introduction effort and environmental niche models. , 2007, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[17]  Chad L. Hewitt,et al.  Nonindigenous biota on artificial structures: could habitat creation facilitate biological invasions? , 2007 .

[18]  W. L. Chadderton,et al.  Dispersal, disturbance and the contrasting biogeographies of New Zealand’s diadromous and non‐diadromous fish species , 2008 .

[19]  T. Notteboom,et al.  Containerisation, Box Logistics and Global Supply Chains: The Integration of Ports and Liner Shipping Networks , 2008 .

[20]  J. E. Byers,et al.  Five Potential Consequences of Climate Change for Invasive Species , 2008, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.

[21]  Simon C. Barry,et al.  Ballast water risk assessment: principles, processes, and methods , 2008 .

[22]  D. Richardson,et al.  Adaptive evolution in invasive species. , 2008, Trends in plant science.

[23]  R. Meentemeyer,et al.  Invasive species distribution modeling (iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions? , 2009 .

[24]  T. Blackburn,et al.  The more you introduce the more you get: the role of colonization pressure and propagule pressure in invasion ecology , 2009 .

[25]  P. Hulme Trade, transport and trouble: managing invasive species pathways in an era of globalization , 2009 .

[26]  L. Herborg,et al.  Forecasting the potential distribution of the invasive tunicate Didemnum vexillum , 2009 .

[27]  Andrew S. Brierley,et al.  Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms and Ecosystems , 2009, Current Biology.

[28]  O. Floerl,et al.  Potential ramifications of the global economic crisis on human-mediated dispersal of marine non-indigenous species. , 2009, Marine pollution bulletin.

[29]  E. Woehler,et al.  Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels , 2010 .

[30]  Jaume Rosselló,et al.  Global Economic Crisis and Tourism: Consequences and Perspectives , 2010 .

[31]  Steven J. Phillips,et al.  The art of modelling range‐shifting species , 2010 .

[32]  J. Leathwick,et al.  Thermogeography predicts the potential global range of the invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas) , 2010 .

[33]  J. Bruno,et al.  The Impact of Climate Change on the World’s Marine Ecosystems , 2010, Science.

[34]  Susan L. Williams,et al.  Marine range shifts and species introductions: comparative spread rates and community impacts , 2010 .

[35]  J. Stachowicz,et al.  Patterns and processes of compositional change in a California epibenthic community , 2011 .

[36]  Kerrie A. Wilson,et al.  Conservation policies and planning under climate change , 2011 .

[37]  D. Lodge,et al.  Linking environmental conditions and ship movements to estimate invasive species transport across the global shipping network , 2011 .

[38]  N. Gemmell,et al.  Global Phylogeography of the Widely Introduced North West Pacific Ascidian Styela clava , 2011, PloS one.

[39]  J. E. Byers,et al.  ‘Caribbean Creep’ Chills Out: Climate Change and Marine Invasive Species , 2011, PloS one.

[40]  G. Inglis,et al.  Arrival of the alien fanworm Sabella spallanzanii (Gmelin, 1791) (Polychaeta: Sabellidae) in two New Zealand harbours , 2011 .

[41]  Jane Elith,et al.  Pushing the limits in marine species distribution modelling: lessons from the land present challenges and opportunities , 2011 .

[42]  An ocean climate change Atlas for New Zealand waters , 2011 .

[43]  G. Ruiz,et al.  Potential for high‐latitude marine invasions along western North America , 2011 .

[44]  R. G. Davies,et al.  Using dispersal information to model the species–environment relationship of spreading non‐native species , 2012 .

[45]  M. Mpundu Official Documents- Fourth Amendment to the Administration Agreement with New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade , 2015 .