A wind power output time series modeling

The present invention provides a wind power output time series modeling method may be used to study power system planning, power system reliability evaluation, wind power and long-term scheduling. The method of historical wind power output time series basis, first the characteristics of the history of wind power output time series analysis, site-specific wind index fluctuation characteristics electric wind power output is included, then the history of wind power output time series filtering process, and and the wind carried the segment dividing process, the process of transition probability and statistical wind probability distribution of each fragment, and finally the use of sequential sampling analog reconstruction wind power output time series, and the reconstruction of the time series of tests to verify. The present invention is for a wind farm output time series were accurate assessment of the maximum possible output characteristics of the simulated wind power, wind power can be used to assess the capacity credit, accurate positioning position in wind power systems, power system dispatching guide.