Risk analysis-a subjective process

In everyday life we make intuitive decisions without consciously attributing either quantitative or qualitative values to the risks involved. But in public policy and the deployment of modem technology, decisions need to be more 'objectively' informed, and for this risk analysis is used. The purpose of this article is to show the subjectivity in the process of risk analysis. This is not intended as a destructive dissection, for a major benefit of risk analysis is its subjectivity-its requirement for thought and judgement. It should not be the mere application of a set of rules. However, where subjectivity is arbitrary and could be reduced, or where its better understanding could improve accuracy, its exposure could be beneficial. Understanding their own subjectivity and scope for error could lead risk analysts to recognise their assumptions and consider more fully the confidence that they can reasonably have in their results. It could also lead to research into the processes and techniques of risk analysis. The first in a series of articles on the subject, this article addresses the overall process of risk analysis.