From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback

This “From the Editors” column is coauthored by new Editor-in-Chief Rakesh K. Sarin and former Editor-in-Chief L. Robin Keller. Our first two articles are on techniques for approximating probability distributions. The first article, by Robert K. Hammond and J. Eric Bickel is on “Reexamining Discrete Approximations to Continuous Distributions.” Next, Luis V. Montiel and J. Eric Bickel present a method for “Approximating Joint Probability Distributions Given Partial Information.” The next two articles present methods for analyzing terrorist threats or measures for terrorist protection. Kevin Ni, Daniel Faissol, Thomas Edmunds, and Richard Wheeler present a new method for “Exploitation of Ambiguous Cues to Infer Terrorist Activity.” The next article is on “Passenger Profiling and Screening for Aviation Security in the Presence of Strategic Attackers” by Huseyin Cavusoglu, Young Kwark, Bin Mai, and Srinivasan Raghunathan. Our final paper is on “WholeSoldier Performance Appraisal to Support Mentoring and Personnel Decisions,” by Robert A. Dees, Scott T. Nestler, and Robert Kewley.

[1]  Joseph B. Kadane,et al.  Proper Scoring Rules, Dominated Forecasts, and Coherence , 2009, Decis. Anal..

[2]  Niyazi Onur Bakir.  A Decision Tree Model for Evaluating Countermeasures to Secure Cargo at United States Southwestern Ports of Entry , 2008, Decis. Anal..

[3]  J. Eric Bickel,et al.  Approximating Joint Probability Distributions Given Partial Information , 2013, Decis. Anal..

[4]  Vicki M. Bier,et al.  Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons in Container Freight Through Detection and Retaliation , 2011, Decis. Anal..

[5]  James L. Corner,et al.  Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990 - 2001 , 2004, Decis. Anal..

[6]  Thomas A. Edmunds,et al.  Exploitation of Ambiguous Cues to Infer Terrorist Activity , 2013, Decis. Anal..

[7]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Working with Policy Makers on Their Choices: A Decision Analyst Reminisces , 2009, Decis. Anal..

[8]  Aurélien Baillon,et al.  Eliciting Subjective Probabilities Through Exchangeable Events: An Advantage and a Limitation , 2008, Decis. Anal..

[9]  Huseyin Cavusoglu,et al.  Configuration of Detection Software: A Comparison of Decision and Game Theory Approaches , 2004, Decis. Anal..

[10]  Robert F. Bordley,et al.  Using Bayes' Rule to Update an Event's Probabilities Based on the Outcomes of Partially Similar Events , 2011, Decis. Anal..

[11]  Jason R. W. Merrick,et al.  Is Screening Cargo Containers for Smuggled Nuclear Threats Worthwhile? , 2010, Decis. Anal..

[12]  J. Eric Bickel,et al.  Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model , 2006, Decis. Anal..

[13]  Yigal Gerchak,et al.  Elicitation of Probabilities Using Competitive Scoring Rules , 2004, Decis. Anal..

[14]  Scott T. Nestler,et al.  WholeSoldier Performance Appraisal to Support Mentoring and Personnel Decisions , 2013, Decis. Anal..

[15]  L. Robin Keller,et al.  From the Editors - Copulas, Group Preferences, Multilevel Defenders, Sharing Rewards, and Communicating Analytics , 2012, Decis. Anal..

[16]  Detlof von Winterfeldt,et al.  Should We Protect Commercial Airplanes Against Surface-to-Air Missile Attacks by Terrorists? , 2006, Decis. Anal..

[17]  Leslie M. Marx,et al.  Exploring Relations between Decision Analysis and Game Theory , 2007, Decis. Anal..

[18]  J. Eric Bickel.  On the Decision to Take a Pitch , 2009, Decis. Anal..

[19]  Robert F. Bordley,et al.  Combining the Opinions of Experts Who Partition Events Differently , 2009, Decis. Anal..

[20]  João Carlos Lourenço,et al.  Development of Reusable Bid Evaluation Models for the Portuguese Electric Transmission Company , 2008, Decis. Anal..

[21]  L. Robin Keller,et al.  From the Editors - Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk , 2012, Decis. Anal..

[22]  Jeffrey M. Keisler,et al.  Communicating Analytic Results: A Tutorial for Decision Consultants , 2012, Decis. Anal..

[23]  J. Eric Bickel,et al.  Some Comparisons among Quadratic, Spherical, and Logarithmic Scoring Rules , 2007, Decis. Anal..

[24]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Analysis of National Strategies to Counter a Country's Nuclear Weapons Program , 2011, Decis. Anal..

[25]  Seth D. Guikema,et al.  Resource Allocation for Homeland Defense: Dealing with the Team Effect , 2012, Decis. Anal..

[26]  David J. Johnstone,et al.  The Parimutuel Kelly Probability Scoring Rule , 2007, Decis. Anal..

[27]  J. Eric Bickel,et al.  The Relationship Between Perfect and Imperfect Information in a Two-Action Risk-Sensitive Problem , 2008, Decis. Anal..

[28]  Kate Larson,et al.  Sharing Rewards Among Strangers Based on Peer Evaluations , 2012, Decis. Anal..

[29]  Scott B. Cantor.  Clinical Applications in the Decision Analysis Literature (Comment on Keefer et al. 2004) , 2004 .

[30]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Acceptable Input: Using Decision Analysis to Guide Public Policy Deliberations , 2005, Decis. Anal..

[31]  William J. Tarantino,et al.  Use of Decision Analysis in the Army Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) 2005 Military Value Analysis , 2006, Decis. Anal..

[32]  John E. Gaffney,et al.  A Decision Analysis Method for Evaluating Computer Intrusion Detection Systems , 2004, Decis. Anal..

[33]  Atin Basuchoudhary,et al.  A Decision Analysis Approach to Solving the Signaling Game , 2009, Decis. Anal..

[34]  Kjell Hausken,et al.  Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T-Period Game , 2011, Decis. Anal..

[35]  Steven A. Lippman,et al.  Sex, Lies, and the Hillblom Estate: A Decision Analysis , 2004, Decis. Anal..

[36]  L. Robin Keller,et al.  From the Editor---Decisions over Time (Exploding Offers or Purchase Regret), in Game Settings (Embedded Nash Bargaining or Adversarial Games), and in Influence Diagrams , 2012 .

[37]  J. Eric Bickel,et al.  A Simulation-Based Approach to Decision Making with Partial Information , 2012, Decis. Anal..

[38]  Anthony Michael Barrett,et al.  Cost Effectiveness of On-Site Chlorine Generation for Chlorine Truck Attack Prevention , 2010, Decis. Anal..

[39]  Erin Baker,et al.  Development of a Green Building Decision Support Tool: A Collaborative Process , 2009, Decis. Anal..

[40]  J. Eric Bickel,et al.  Scoring Rules and Decision Analysis Education , 2010, Decis. Anal..

[41]  Huseyin Cavusoglu,et al.  Passenger Profiling and Screening for Aviation Security in the Presence of Strategic Attackers , 2013, Decis. Anal..

[42]  Ahti Salo,et al.  Combining a Multiattribute Value Function with an Optimization Model: An Application to Dynamic Resource Allocation for Infrastructure Maintenance , 2009, Decis. Anal..

[43]  Ali E. Abbas,et al.  A Comparison of Two Probability Encoding Methods: Fixed Probability vs. Fixed Variable Values , 2008, Decis. Anal..

[44]  J. Eric Bickel,et al.  Reexamining Discrete Approximations to Continuous Distributions , 2013, Decis. Anal..

[45]  J. Eric Bickel,et al.  Some Determinants of Corporate Risk Aversion , 2006, Decis. Anal..

[46]  Michael H. Rothkopf,et al.  Decision Analysis: The Right Tool for Auctions , 2007, Decis. Anal..

[47]  Gregory S. Parnell,et al.  Decision-Focused Transformation of Additive Value Models to Improve Communication , 2010, Decis. Anal..

[48]  Kumar Rajaram,et al.  A Decision Analysis Tool for Evaluating Fundraising Tiers , 2009, Decis. Anal..

[49]  Denis M. Strachan,et al.  Resource-Limited Multiattribute Value Analysis of Alternatives for Immobilizing Radioactive Liquid Process Waste Stored in Saluggia, Italy , 2009, Decis. Anal..

[50]  David Ríos Insua,et al.  Adversarial Risk Analysis: The Somali Pirates Case , 2012, Decis. Anal..

[51]  J. Eric Bickel,et al.  From the Editors - Brainstorming, Multiplicative Utilities, Partial Information on Probabilities or Outcomes, and Regulatory Focus , 2012, Decis. Anal..

[52]  L. Robin Keller,et al.  A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis for Terrorism Protection: Potassium Iodide Distribution in Nuclear Incidents , 2006, Decis. Anal..