Development of Models for Defense Systems Planning

Abstract : The report describes research effort to develop analytical methods of defense processes, principally the combat process. The basic structure and underlying assumptions of generalized differential models of combat are presented. Research on methods to predict input attrition coefficients (comprised of attrition rates, allocation factors, and intelligence factors) is described. Attrition-rate models are presented for a spectrum of weapon system classes. Methods and associated research problems in solving the differential combat models for homogeneous- and heterogeneous-force battles are described. The effects of mobility in some simple engagements are analyzed. Optimal procedures for allocation of fire in constant attrition-coefficient, heterogeneous-force battles are developed. Preliminary modeling of the reconnaissance activity when line-of-sight is intermittent is presented. Areas for future research are described.