A system dynamics based market agent model simulating future powertrain technology transition: Scenarios in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector

The study presents an extensive System Dynamics simulation model, running up to 2050, employing an agent-based approach and incorporating major factors that influence the technology transition in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector. The model aims at better understanding and analysing market trends. It is a comprehensive representation of EU powertrain technology transition, at member state level, and includes interactions and feedbacks between major stakeholders influencing the evolution of the market shares. The model seeks to integrate a wider range of market, industry and technology dynamics compared to other known models to date. Five scenarios are conducted to explore the dynamics of the powertrain transitions under different oil prices, GDP growth, learning rates, purchase subsidies and EU emission targets. The findings illustrate that the developed model is able to give strategic insights to authorities, manufacturers and infrastructure providers regarding their respective decisions, policies and challenges in relation to medium and long-term trends in the EU road transport sector.

[1]  Mark J. Koetse,et al.  A choice experiment on alternative fuel vehicle preferences of private car owners in the Netherlands , 2014 .

[2]  John D. Sterman,et al.  System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World , 2002 .

[3]  Eric Bonabeau,et al.  Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[4]  R. C. Epstein,et al.  The automobile industry , 1928 .

[5]  Simon Shepherd,et al.  An interdisciplinary study to explore impacts from policies for the introduction of low carbon vehicles , 2014 .

[6]  Simon Shepherd,et al.  A review of system dynamics models applied in transportation , 2014 .

[7]  Leo Schrattenholzer,et al.  Learning rates for energy technologies , 2001 .

[8]  L. L. Rodrigues,et al.  Vehicle fuel consumption modelling: A system dynamics approach , 2012, WCE 2012.

[9]  Dilara Panagiota,et al.  Electric vehicles in the EU from 2010 to 2014 - is full scale commercialisation near? , 2015 .

[10]  Gustavo O Collantes,et al.  Incorporating stakeholders' perspectives into models of new technology diffusion: The case of fuel-cell vehicles , 2007 .

[11]  Fritz Gassmann,et al.  Generic structure to simulate acceptance dynamics , 2010 .

[12]  S. F. Lienin,et al.  Model aided policy development for the market penetration of natural gas vehicles in Switzerland , 2006 .

[13]  Ilhan Or,et al.  A decision support tool for the analysis of pricing, investment and regulatory processes in a decentralized electricity market , 2008 .

[14]  EUROPEAN HYDROGEN ENERGY ROADMAP , 2006 .

[15]  Franklin Farell.  Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area: Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system , 2014 .

[16]  K. Train,et al.  Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles , 1999, Controlling Automobile Air Pollution.

[17]  Ausilio Bauen,et al.  A harmonised auto-fuel biofuel roadmap for the EU to 2030 , 2013 .

[18]  Wolf Fichtner,et al.  EV market development pathways — An application of System Dynamics for policy simulation , 2013, 2013 World Electric Vehicle Symposium and Exhibition (EVS27).

[19]  J. Sterman,et al.  Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems , 2006 .

[20]  David A. Kirsch.  The Electric Vehicle and the Burden of History , 2000 .

[21]  Andrew Higgins,et al.  Combining choice modelling and multi-criteria analysis for technology diffusion: An application to the uptake of electric vehicles , 2012 .

[22]  John M. Deutch,et al.  What should the government do to encourage technical change in the energy sector , 2005 .

[23]  E F Wolstenholme,et al.  Qualitative vs quantitative modelling: the evolving balance , 1999, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[24]  J. Martin,et al.  Energy technologies: Systemic aspects, technological trajectories, and institutional frameworks , 1996 .

[25]  Simon Shepherd,et al.  Factors affecting future demand for electric vehicles: A model based study , 2012 .

[26]  Simon Shepherd,et al.  Introduction to the special issue: system dynamics and transportation , 2010 .

[27]  Tae-hyeong Kwon,et al.  Strategic niche management of alternative fuel vehicles: A system dynamics model of the policy effect , 2012 .

[28]  J. P. Toner,et al.  A mixed logit model of U.K. household demand for alternative-fuel vehicles. , 2004 .

[29]  Patrick E. Meyer,et al.  Modeling technology diffusion of complementary goods: The case of hydrogen vehicles and refueling infrastructure , 2009, Technovation.

[30]  James J. Winebrake,et al.  The AFV credit program and its role in future AFV market development , 1997 .

[31]  D. Calef,et al.  The allure of technology: How France and California promoted electric and hybrid vehicles to reduce urban air pollution , 2007 .

[32]  Max Åhman,et al.  Government policy and the development of electric vehicles in Japan , 2006 .

[33]  Felix Eggers,et al.  Where have all the flowers gone? Forecasting green trends in the automobile industry with a choice-based conjoint adoption model , 2011 .

[34]  Peter C. Flynn,et al.  Commercializing an alternate vehicle fuel: lessons learned from natural gas for vehicles , 2002 .

[35]  Daniel Sperling,et al.  Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions , 2001 .

[36]  Elisabetta Cherchi,et al.  A long panel survey to elicit variation in preferences and attitudes in the choice of electric vehicles , 2014 .

[37]  Davide Fiorello,et al.  The ASTRA model for strategic assessment of transport policies , 2010 .

[38]  Jerry A. Hausman,et al.  Assessing the potential demand for electric cars , 1981 .

[39]  Thomas W. Valente,et al.  Diffusion of Innovations and Policy Decision‐Making , 1993 .

[40]  Marc Melaina,et al.  Refueling availability for alternative fuel vehicle markets: Sufficient urban station coverage , 2008 .

[41]  David A. Howey,et al.  Policy: A challenging future for cars , 2012 .

[42]  Stephane Hess,et al.  A joint model for vehicle type and fuel type choice: evidence from a cross-nested logit study , 2012 .

[43]  Guzay Pasaoglu,et al.  Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe , 2012 .

[44]  V. Norberg-Bohm.  Creating Incentives for Environmentally Enhancing Technological Change: Lessons From 30 Years of U.S. Energy Technology Policy , 2000 .

[45]  Lorraine Whitmarsh,et al.  Infrastructure investment for a transition to hydrogen automobiles , 2010 .

[46]  Nathan Rosenberg,et al.  Inside the black box , 1983 .

[47]  E. Rogers.  Diffusion of Innovations , 1962 .

[48]  M. Melendez.  Transitioning to a Hydrogen Future: Learning from the Alternative Fuels Experience , 2006 .

[49]  Eckehard Schnieder,et al.  Impact assessment in the automotive industry: mandatory market introduction of alternative powertrain technologies , 2010 .

[50]  Nebojsa Nakicenovic,et al.  Dynamics of energy technologies and global change , 1999 .

[51]  Daniel Sperling,et al.  Advanced Passenger Transport Technologies , 2008 .