The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants
暂无分享,去创建一个
A. Ozgul | M. Schaepman | O. Petchey | B. McGill | A. Beckerman | B. Schmid | F. Altermatt | Frank Pennekamp | S. Kéfi | Mikael Pontarp | Thomas M. Massie | G. M. Palamara | J. Levine | I. Pearse | D. Childs | B. Matthews | P. Spaak | M. Weilenmann | G. Palamara
[1] Adrian E. Raftery,et al. Use and communication of probabilistic forecasts , 2014, Stat. Anal. Data Min..
[2] Andrea Rinaldo,et al. Experimental evidence for strong stabilizing forces at high functional diversity of aquatic microbial communities. , 2015, Ecology.
[3] George Sugihara,et al. Equation-free mechanistic ecosystem forecasting using empirical dynamic modeling , 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[4] Daniel E. Schindler,et al. Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change , 2015, Science.
[5] Ming Dong,et al. The compadre Plant Matrix Database: an open online repository for plant demography , 2015 .
[6] Uta Berger,et al. Making Predictions in a Changing World: The Benefits of Individual-Based Ecology , 2014, Bioscience.
[7] Matthew J. Smith,et al. Predictability of the terrestrial carbon cycle , 2015, Global change biology.
[8] Kai M. A. Chan,et al. Leaps of Faith: How Implicit Assumptions Compromise the Utility of Ecosystem Models for Decision-making , 2015 .
[9] Christophe Thébaud,et al. Fundamental ecology is fundamental. , 2015, Trends in ecology & evolution.
[10] Douglas W. Yu,et al. The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts , 2014, Ecology and Evolution.
[11] M. Ackermann,et al. Phenotypic plasticity influences the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a predator–prey system , 2014 .
[12] C. A. Mücher,et al. Strong contribution of autumn phenology to changes in satellite‐derived growing season length estimates across Europe (1982–2011) , 2014, Global change biology.
[13] Corey Chivers,et al. Validation and calibration of probabilistic predictions in ecology , 2014 .
[14] Matthew J. Smith,et al. Model human adaptation to climate change , 2014 .
[15] Matthew J. Smith,et al. Earth systems: Model human adaptation to climate change , 2014, Nature.
[16] S. Vincenzi. Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events , 2014, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.
[17] Wilfried Thuiller,et al. Comparison of remote sensing and plant trait-based modelling to predict ecosystem services in subalpine grasslands , 2014 .
[18] J. Blanchard,et al. A bioenergetic framework for the temperature dependence of trophic interactions. , 2014, Ecology letters.
[19] Eric Guilyardi,et al. Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[20] M. Schaepman,et al. Modelling plant species distribution in alpine grasslands using airborne imaging spectroscopy , 2014, Biology Letters.
[21] Ben Collen,et al. Complexity is costly: a meta‐analysis of parametric and non‐parametric methods for short‐term population forecasting , 2014 .
[22] Joshua Garland,et al. Model-free quantification of time-series predictability. , 2014, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.
[23] H. Godfray,et al. Open questions: are the dynamics of ecological communities predictable? , 2014, BMC Biology.
[24] B. McGill,et al. Scale dependency in the functional form of the distance decay relationship , 2014 .
[25] Matthew J. Smith,et al. Emergent Global Patterns of Ecosystem Structure and Function from a Mechanistic General Ecosystem Model , 2014, PLoS biology.
[26] Mary J. Lancaster,et al. Disease Prediction Models and Operational Readiness , 2014, PloS one.
[27] Björn C. Rall,et al. Ecological stability in response to warming , 2014 .
[28] Correction for Travis et al., Integrating the invisible fabric of nature into fisheries management , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[29] M. Doebeli,et al. CHAOS AND UNPREDICTABILITY IN EVOLUTION , 2013, Evolution; international journal of organic evolution.
[30] W. Verhoef,et al. Bayesian object-based estimation of LAI and chlorophyll from a simulated Sentinel-2 top-of-atmosphere radiance image , 2014 .
[31] P. Cury,et al. Integrating the invisible fabric of nature into fisheries management , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[32] Owen L. Petchey,et al. Predictive systems ecology , 2013, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.
[33] Lawrence N. Hudson,et al. A cure for the plague of parameters: constraining models of complex population dynamics with allometries , 2013, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.
[34] Dominique Gravel,et al. Inferring food web structure from predator–prey body size relationships , 2013 .
[35] Brendan A. Wintle,et al. Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions , 2013, Ecology letters.
[36] George Sugihara,et al. Reply to Hartig and Dormann: The true model myth , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[37] Mark Gahegan,et al. Biodiversity data should be published, cited, and peer reviewed. , 2013, Trends in ecology & evolution.
[38] Florian Altermatt,et al. Predicting novel trophic interactions in a non-native world. , 2013, Ecology letters.
[39] Florian Hartig,et al. Does model-free forecasting really outperform the true model? , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[40] Gregory P. Asner,et al. Observing Changing Ecological Diversity in the Anthropocene , 2013 .
[41] B. McGill,et al. Testing the predictive performance of distribution models , 2013 .
[42] George Sugihara,et al. Model-free forecasting outperforms the correct mechanistic model for simulated and experimental data , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[43] Thilo Gross,et al. How to predict community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity , 2013, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.
[44] N. Pettorelli,et al. Essential Biodiversity Variables , 2013, Science.
[45] Stephen Emmott,et al. Ecosystems: Time to model all life on Earth , 2013, Nature.
[46] J. Shaman,et al. Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[47] George Sugihara,et al. Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems , 2012, Science.
[48] S. Diehl,et al. Simple rules describe bottom-up and top-down control in food webs with alternative energy pathways. , 2012, Ecology letters.
[49] A. Miller‐Rushing,et al. Forecasting phenology: from species variability to community patterns. , 2012, Ecology letters.
[50] Alycia L. Stigall,et al. Using ecological niche modelling to evaluate niche stability in deep time , 2012 .
[51] Steven F Railsback,et al. Pattern-oriented modelling: a ‘multi-scope’ for predictive systems ecology , 2012, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.
[52] Tim G Benton,et al. Predictive ecology: systems approaches , 2012, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.
[53] M. R. Evans,et al. Modelling ecological systems in a changing world , 2012, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.
[54] Louis J. Gross,et al. The limits to prediction in ecological systems , 2011 .
[55] Mike Pearson,et al. Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future , 2022 .
[56] S. Higgins,et al. TRY – a global database of plant traits , 2011, Global Change Biology.
[57] Mridul K Thomas,et al. Toward an integration of evolutionary biology and ecosystem science. , 2011, Ecology letters.
[58] Yiqi Luo,et al. Assimilation of multiple data sets with the ensemble Kalman filter to improve forecasts of forest carbon dynamics. , 2011, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.
[59] Stephen P Ellner,et al. Does rapid evolution matter? Measuring the rate of contemporary evolution and its impacts on ecological dynamics. , 2011, Ecology letters.
[60] S. Dobrowski,et al. Modeling plant ranges over 75 years of climate change in California, USA: temporal transferability and species traits , 2011 .
[61] Mark Emmerson,et al. Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity. , 2011, Ecology.
[62] Stephen P Ellner,et al. Reduction of adaptive genetic diversity radically alters eco-evolutionary community dynamics. , 2010, Ecology letters.
[63] Owen L Petchey,et al. Predicting the effects of temperature on food web connectance , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.
[64] James D. Scott,et al. Forecasting the dynamics of a coastal fishery species using a coupled climate--population model. , 2010, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.
[65] C. Field,et al. The velocity of climate change , 2009, Nature.
[66] L. Mermet,et al. The rise of research on futures in ecology: rebalancing scenarios and predictions. , 2009, Ecology letters.
[67] S. Carpenter,et al. Early-warning signals for critical transitions , 2009, Nature.
[68] Gregory P. Asner,et al. Tropical forest carbon assessment: integrating satellite and airborne mapping approaches , 2009 .
[69] G. Takimoto. Early warning signals of demographic regime shifts in invading populations , 2009, Population Ecology.
[70] Per Lundberg,et al. Niche co-evolution in consumer-resource communities , 2009 .
[71] Eric Young,et al. Predicting the future of species diversity: macroecological theory, climate change, and direct tests of alternative forecasting methods , 2009 .
[72] Neo D. Martinez,et al. Simple prediction of interaction strengths in complex food webs , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[73] Stephen P Ellner,et al. Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable. , 2008, Ecology letters.
[74] S. Pacala,et al. Predictive Models of Forest Dynamics , 2008, Science.
[75] M. Schaepman,et al. Assessing and predicting biodiversity in a floodplain ecosystem: Assimilation of net primary production derived from imaging spectrometer data into a dynamic vegetation model , 2008 .
[76] Marten Scheffer,et al. Chaos in a long-term experiment with a plankton community , 2008, Nature.
[77] Hideo Harasawa,et al. A modeling approach to forecast the effect of long-term climate change on lake water quality , 2007 .
[78] Brian J. McGill,et al. Can niche-based distribution models outperform spatial interpolation? , 2007 .
[79] Mark New,et al. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. , 2007, Trends in ecology & evolution.
[80] M. Saunders. Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis , 2009 .
[81] Peter Kareiva,et al. Shaping global environmental decisions using socio-ecological models. , 2006, Trends in ecology & evolution.
[82] Gerhard Petschel-Held,et al. Synthesis of the Storylines , 2006 .
[83] Nicholas J Gotelli,et al. Food-Web Models Predict Species Abundances in Response to Habitat Change , 2006, PLoS biology.
[84] William J. Sutherland,et al. Predicting the ecological consequences of environmental change: a review of the methods* , 2006 .
[85] Jeannine Cavender-Bares,et al. Phylogenetic structure of Floridian plant communities depends on taxonomic and spatial scale. , 2006, Ecology.
[86] J. Emmett Duffy,et al. Diversity and dispersal interactively affect predictability of ecosystem function , 2006, Nature.
[87] David W. Macdonald,et al. The identification of 100 ecological questions of high policy relevance in the UK , 2006 .
[88] M. Quinn,et al. Citizen, science, highways, and wildlife: Using a web-based GIS to engage citizens in collecting wildlife information , 2006 .
[89] Nicholas J Gotelli,et al. Forecasting extinction risk with nonstationary matrix models. , 2006, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.
[90] S. Ellner,et al. Rapid evolution and the convergence of ecological and evolutionary time , 2005 .
[91] W. Thuiller,et al. Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. , 2005, Ecology letters.
[92] J. Timothy Wootton,et al. Markov chain models predict the consequences of experimental extinctions , 2004 .
[93] Kevin Stokes,et al. Coping with uncertainty in ecological advice: lessons from fisheries , 2003 .
[94] R. Holt,et al. Meta‐ecosystems: a theoretical framework for a spatial ecosystem ecology , 2003 .
[95] Prabhu Pingali,et al. Why global scenarios need ecology , 2003 .
[96] S. Ellner,et al. Rapid evolution drives ecological dynamics in a predator–prey system , 2003, Nature.
[97] Stephen R. Carpenter,et al. UNCERTAINTY AND THE MANAGEMENT OF MULTISTATE ECOSYSTEMS: AN APPARENTLY RATIONAL ROUTE TO COLLAPSE , 2003 .
[98] Jeffrey M. Dambacher,et al. Qualitative predictions in model ecosystems , 2003 .
[99] Jonathan M. Levine,et al. Forecasting Biological Invasions with Increasing International Trade , 2003 .
[100] J. Wootton. Indirect effects in complex ecosystems: recent progress and future challenges , 2002 .
[101] Jeffrey M. Dambacher,et al. RELEVANCE OF COMMUNITY STRUCTURE IN ASSESSING INDETERMINACY OF ECOLOGICAL PREDICTIONS , 2002 .
[102] Helen M. Regan,et al. A TAXONOMY AND TREATMENT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION BIOLOGY , 2002 .
[103] A. Vulpiani,et al. Predictability: a way to characterize complexity , 2001, nlin/0101029.
[104] A. Hollingsworth,et al. Some aspects of the improvement in skill of numerical weather prediction , 2002 .
[105] S. Carpenter,et al. Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. , 2001, Science.
[106] G. A. Forbes,et al. Estimating the global severity of potato late blight with GIS‐linked disease forecast models , 2000 .
[107] S. Ellner,et al. Crossing the hopf bifurcation in a live predator-prey system. , 2000, Science.
[108] Jürgen Kurths,et al. Localized Lyapunov exponents and the prediction of predictability , 2000 .
[109] K. McCann. The diversity–stability debate , 2000, Nature.
[110] H. Resit Akçakaya,et al. Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology , 2000, Nature.
[111] Ferdinand Baer,et al. Numerical weather prediction , 2000, Adv. Comput..
[112] P. White,et al. The distance decay of similarity in biogeography and ecology , 1999 .
[113] M. Loreau,et al. Biodiversity and ecosystem productivity in a fluctuating environment: the insurance hypothesis. , 1999, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.
[114] Jill McGrady-Steed,et al. Biodiversity regulates ecosystem predictability , 1997, Nature.
[115] A. Crisanti,et al. Predictability in the large: an extension of the concept of Lyapunov exponent , 1996, chao-dyn/9606014.
[116] Celso Grebogi,et al. Predictability in time series , 1995 .
[117] D. M. Unwin,et al. The competition box: a graphical aid to forecasting pollinator performance , 1995 .
[118] Stephen P. Ellner,et al. Chaos in a Noisy World: New Methods and Evidence from Time-Series Analysis , 1995, The American Naturalist.
[119] D. Nychka,et al. Local Lyapunov exponents: Predictability depends on where you are , 1995 .
[120] Gidon Eshel,et al. Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature , 1994, Nature.
[121] Gary James Jason,et al. The Logic of Scientific Discovery , 1988 .
[122] P. Yodzis. The Indeterminacy of Ecological Interactions as Perceived Through Perturbation Experiments , 1988 .
[123] S. Pickett,et al. Ecology: Individuals, populations and communities , 1987 .
[124] John L. Harper,et al. Ecology: Individuals, Populations and Communities , 1986 .
[125] M. Cannell,et al. Thermal time, chill days and prediction of budburst in Picea sitchensis , 1983 .
[126] R. May,et al. Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems , 1976, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.
[127] John Vandermeer,et al. The Competitive Structure of Communities: An Experimental Approach with Protozoa , 1969 .
[128] L. P. Smith,et al. Meteorological factors and forecasts of helminthic disease. , 1969, Advances in parasitology.
[129] R. Levins. The strategy of model building in population biology , 1966 .
[130] E. Lorenz. A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model , 1965 .