A More Powerful China on Parade

Abstract : The 60th anniversary of the People's Republic of China offered a glimpse at one of the most controversial aspects of the country's rise: its expanding military might. In the October 1st parade, 56 phalanxes of more than 8,000 People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers, some 500 tanks and assorted military vehicles, and 151 combat aircraft passed by and above the leadership gathered at Tiananmen Square. China claimed that nearly 90 percent of the armaments were displayed in public for the first time, including its most sophisticated nuclear-capable intercontinental missiles, land attack cruise missiles, and airborne warning and control system aircraft (AWACS). Outside of China, defense analysts scrutinized the event, coming to a wide range of conclusions. Some saw the parade as evidence that the PLA is still hamstrung by the same shortcomings that have limited its capabilities for decades -- particularly, weak indigenous aircraft production and information warfare capabilities. Others, already self-convinced of a threatening China, pointed fearfully to new asymmetric missile capabilities that may embolden the PLA. However, to gain a clear understanding of China's military progress, analysts must cast aside preconceived prejudices about the PLA's limits and intentions. Instead, it is more useful to measure the current PLA against its past capabilities and its own stated goals.