Mitigation potential of carbon dioxide emissions in the Chinese textile industry

We estimated the reduction potential of carbon dioxide emissions in the Chinese textile industry by forecasting the carbon intensity (CO2 emissions/industrial value added) in different scenarios. The Johansen co-integration technique was employed in order to establish the long term equilibrium equation. Three scenarios (Business As Usual (BAU), medium and optimum) were designed to estimate the future trend of carbon intensity in the Chinese textile industry. The results showed that energy price, energy substitution, labor productivity and technology have significant impact on the carbon intensity. Estimated to 1.49t CO2/10,000 yuan in 2010, we found that for the BAU scenario, the carbon intensity will decrease to 0.5 and 0.29t CO2/10,000 yuan by 2020 and 2025 respectively. For the medium scenario, carbon intensity will decline to 0.12t CO2/10,000 yuan. Yet by the optimum scenario, the intensity is expected to considerably decrease to 0.05t CO2/10,000 yuan by 2025. Using the BAU forecast as baseline, the quantity of reduction potential in carbon dioxide emissions is estimated to be 44.8milliontons CO2 by 2025. Considering this huge potential, we provided policy suggestions to reduce the level of CO2 emissions in the Chinese textile industry.

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