Dynamiques des popularités dans YouTube

RESUME. Cet article est une etude de l’evolution du nombre de vues des contenus dans YouTube. Nous proposons dans un premier temps plusieurs modeles inspires de l’economie et de la biologie pour caracteriser les courbes d’evolution des nombres de vues des videos. Dans un deuxieme temps, nous proposons une methode automatique de classification de ces courbes en les associant a l’un des differents modeles suggeres. Nous montrons, sur un large ensemble de donnees, que 90% des videos peuvent etre associees a l’un de ces modeles avec une erreur moyenne inferieure a 5%. Une etude empirique est menee au sujet de l’impact de la popularite et des categories de videos sur l’evolution des nombres de vues. Enfin, cette classification est utilisee dans un exemple de methode de prediction de la popularite des videos.

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