Software Effort Estimation Using NBC and SWR: A Comparison Based on ISBSG Projects

There are many quantitative estimation methods, e.g. linear regression, neural networks, regression trees. Compared to traditional methods, Bayesian networks are being increasingly used in software engineering because their use opens many possibilities. A main feature of Bayesian networks is their capability to combine data and expert knowledge. This paper seeks to reinforce the hypothesis that Bayesian networks are a competitive method for estimating software effort in terms of prediction accuracy. For this purpose a Naive Bayes Classifier (NBC) and a forward Stepwise Regression (SWR) models have been developed from a subset of the ISBSG dataset. Under homogeneous conditions we found similar results provided that the discretization of the continuous variables is thin enough.

[1]  Marta Fernández-Diego,et al.  Sensitivity of results to different data quality meta-data criteria in the sample selection of projects from the ISBSG dataset , 2010, PROMISE '10.

[2]  Parag C. Pendharkar,et al.  An empirical study of the effect of complexity, platform, and program type on software development effort of business applications , 2006, Empirical Software Engineering.

[3]  Jeffrey J. P. Tsai,et al.  Machine learning applications in software engineering , 2005 .

[4]  John Moses Learning how to improve effort estimation in small software development companies , 2000, Proceedings 24th Annual International Computer Software and Applications Conference. COMPSAC2000.

[5]  Emilia Mendes,et al.  Investigating the use of chronological split for software effort estimation , 2009, IET Softw..

[6]  Stephen G. MacDonell,et al.  What accuracy statistics really measure , 2001, IEE Proc. Softw..

[7]  Emilia Mendes,et al.  Bayesian Network Models for Web Effort Prediction: A Comparative Study , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.

[8]  Ioannis Stamelos,et al.  Bayesian Belief Networks as a Software Productivity Estimation Tool , 2003 .

[9]  Peter Naudé,et al.  An Investigation on the Variation of Software Development Productivity , 2007 .

[10]  Doo-Hwan Bae,et al.  An empirical analysis of software effort estimation with outlier elimination , 2008, PROMISE '08.

[11]  D. Ross Jeffery,et al.  Using public domain metrics to estimate software development effort , 2001, Proceedings Seventh International Software Metrics Symposium.

[12]  Emilia Mendes,et al.  Further comparison of cross-company and within-company effort estimation models for Web applications , 2004 .

[13]  Martin Shepperd,et al.  Data Sets and Data Quality in Software Engineering: Eight Years On , 2016, PROMISE.

[14]  Yu-Jen Liu,et al.  A comparative evaluation on the accuracies of software effort estimates from clustered data , 2008, Inf. Softw. Technol..

[15]  Lukasz Radlinski A SURVEY OF BAYESIAN NET MODELS FOR SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT EFFORT PREDICTION , 2010 .

[16]  Katrina D. Maxwell,et al.  Applied Statistics for Software Managers , 2002 .

[17]  N. Fenton,et al.  ESTIMATING PRODUCTIVITY AND DEFECT RATES BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS , 2008 .

[18]  Emilia Mendes,et al.  Cross-company and single-company effort models using the ISBSG database: a further replicated study , 2006, ISESE '06.

[19]  Barry W. Boehm,et al.  Bayesian Analysis of Empirical Software Engineering Cost Models , 1999, IEEE Trans. Software Eng..

[20]  Emilia Mendes,et al.  Further comparison of cross-company and within-company effort estimation models for Web applications , 2004, 10th International Symposium on Software Metrics, 2004. Proceedings..

[21]  Norman E. Fenton,et al.  Improved Bayesian Networks for Software Project Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Discretisation , 2006, SET.

[22]  Parag C. Pendharkar,et al.  A Probabilistic Model for Predicting Software Development Effort , 2003, ICCSA.

[23]  Marcel Korte,et al.  Confidence in software cost estimation results based on MMRE and PRED , 2008, PROMISE '08.

[24]  Judy M. Vance,et al.  Assessment of VR Technology and its Applications to Engineering Problems , 2001, J. Comput. Inf. Sci. Eng..

[25]  Stephen G. MacDonell,et al.  Maximizing data retention from the ISBSG repository , 2008, EASE.

[26]  B. Stewart Predicting project delivery rates using the Naive-Bayes classifier , 2002, J. Softw. Maintenance Res. Pract..

[27]  Peter Norvig,et al.  Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach , 1995 .

[28]  H. E. Dunsmore,et al.  Software engineering metrics and models , 1986 .

[29]  Craig Comstock,et al.  The Factors Significant to Software Development Productivity , 2007 .

[30]  Emilia Mendes Predicting Web Development Effort Using a Bayesian Network , 2007, EASE.