Bias in genomic predictions by mating practices for linear type traits in a large-scale genomic evaluation.

The objective of this study was to clarify how bias in genomic predictions is created by investigating a relationship among selection intensity, a change in heritability (Δh2), and assortative mating (ASM). A change in heritability, resulting from selection, reflects the impact that the Bulmer effect has on the reduction in between-family variation, whereas assortative mating impacts the within-family variance or Mendelian sampling variation. A partial data set up to 2014, including 841K genotyped animals, was used to calculate genomic predictions with a single-step genomic model for 18 linear type traits in US Holsteins. A full data set up to 2018, including 2.3 million genotyped animals, was used to calculate benchmark genomic predictions. Inbreeding and unknown parent groups for missing parents of animals were included in the model. Genomic evaluation was performed using 2 different genetic parameters: those estimated 14 yr ago, which have been used in the national genetic evaluation for linear type traits in the United States, and those newly estimated with recent records from 2015 to 2018 and those corresponding pedigrees. Genetic trends for 18 type traits were estimated for bulls with daughters and cows with phenotypes in 2018. Based on selection intensity and mating decisions, these traits can be categorized into 3 groups: (a) high directional selection, (b) moderate selection, and (c) intermediate optimum selection. The first 2 categories can be explained by positive assortative mating, and the last can be explained by negative assortative or disassortative mating. Genetic progress was defined by genetic gain per year based on average standardized genomic predictions for cows from 2000 to 2014. Traits with more genetic progress tended to have more "inflated" genomic predictions (i.e., "inflation" means here that genomic predictions are larger in absolute values than expected, whereas "deflation" means smaller than expected). Heritability estimates for 14 out of 18 traits declined in the last 16 yr, and Δh2 ranged from -0.09 to 0.04. Traits with a greater decline in heritability tended to have more deflated genomic predictions. Biases (inflation or deflation) in genomic predictions were not improved by using the latest genetic parameters, implying that bias in genomic predictions due to preselection was not substantial for a large-scale genomic evaluation. Moreover, the strong selection intensity was not fully responsible for bias in genomic predictions. The directional selection can decrease heritability; however, positive assortative mating, which was strongly associated with large genetic gains, could minimize the decline in heritability for a trait under strong selection and could affect bias in genomic predictions.