Hazard implications of small-scale edifice instability and sector collapse: a case history from Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Abstract During the 1995 to 1998 phase of dome growth at Soufrière Hills Volcano on Montserrat, we documented instability of the steep southern rim of English's Crater, known as Galway's Wall. The horseshoe-shaped English's Crater provided good evidence for previous sector collapses, and assessments undertaken in late 1996 anticipated the possibility of a partial sector collapse and a SW-directed explosion, hazards previously unrecognized on Montserrat. A change from predominantly endogenous to exogenous growth of the lava dome at the end of 1996 eased the stress on the southern sector. However, rapid dome growth in November and December 1997 led to severe reloading and eventual sector failure at the base of the buried Galway's Wall and in the adjacent hot-spring area. This failure resulted in the debris avalanche and lateral blast of 26 December 1997. Similar sector collapses at a number of small volcanoes in the Caribbean, as well as worldwide, are evidence that edifice instability develops commonly in dome-forming eruptions. The hazards from a sector collapse and a consequent lateral blast are extreme, and monitoring operations and disaster planning at such volcanoes should focus on these, as well as on the more common hazards of conventional pyroclastic flows associated with dome growth.

[1]  B. Voight,et al.  Pyroclastic flow and explosive activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, during a period of virtually no magma extrusion (March 1998 to November 1999) , 2002, Geological Society, London, Memoirs.

[2]  B. P. Kokelaar,et al.  Setting, chronology and consequences of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (1995-1999) , 2002, Geological Society, London, Memoirs.

[3]  B. Voight,et al.  Episodes of cyclic Vulcanian explosive activity with fountain collapse at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat , 2002, Geological Society, London, Memoirs.

[4]  B. Voight,et al.  Generation of a debris avalanche and violent pyroclastic density current on 26 December (Boxing Day) 1997 at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat , 2002, Geological Society, London, Memoirs.

[5]  R. S. J. Sparks,et al.  Growth patterns and emplacement of the andesitic lava dome at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat , 2002, Geological Society, London, Memoirs.

[6]  B. Voight,et al.  The 26 December (Boxing Day) 1997 sector collapse and debris avalanche at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat , 2002, Geological Society, London, Memoirs.

[7]  A. Woods,et al.  The explosive decompression of a pressurized volcanic dome: the 26 December 1997 collapse and explosion of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat , 2002, Geological Society, London, Memoirs.

[8]  R. Sparks,et al.  Sedimentology of deposits from the pyroclastic density current of 26 December 1997 at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat , 2002, Geological Society, London, Memoirs.

[9]  Willy P Aspinall,et al.  The Montserrat Volcano Observatory: its evolution, organization, role and activities , 2002, Geological Society, London, Memoirs.

[10]  R. Sparks,et al.  The volcanic evolution of Montserrat using 40Ar/39Ar geochronology , 2002, Geological Society, London, Memoirs.

[11]  B. Voight,et al.  The eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 1995 to 1999 , 2002 .

[12]  Loughlin,et al.  Magma flow instability and cyclic activity at soufriere hills volcano, montserrat, british west indies , 1999, Science.

[13]  A. D. Miller,et al.  Observations of hybrid seismic events at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat: July 1995 to September 1996 , 1998 .

[14]  Philippe Heinrich,et al.  Simulation of water waves generated by a potential debris avalanche in Montserrat, Lesser Antilles , 1998 .

[15]  J. Komorowski,et al.  The hydrothermal system at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat (West Indies): Characterization and role in the on‐going eruption , 1998 .

[16]  Brian Baptie,et al.  Seismicity associated with dome growth and collapse at the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat , 1998 .

[17]  A. D. Miller,et al.  Remarkable cyclic ground deformation monitored in real‐time on Montserrat, and its use in eruption forecasting , 1998 .

[18]  A. L. Smith,et al.  Pyroclastic stratigraphy of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat ‐ Implications for the present eruption , 1998 .

[19]  J. Latchman,et al.  Soufrière Hills Eruption, Montserrat, 1995–1997: Volcanic earthquake locations and fault plane solutions , 1998 .

[20]  M. D. Murphy,et al.  The explosive eruption of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies, 17 September, 1996 , 1998 .

[21]  Michael James,et al.  Magma production and growth of the lava dome of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies: November 1995 to December 1997 , 1998 .

[22]  A. D. Miller,et al.  Overview of the eruption of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, 18 July 1995 to December 1997 , 1998 .

[23]  R. A. Bari,et al.  Probabilistic safety assessment and management : PSAM 4 : proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 13-18 September 1998, New York City, USA , 1998 .

[24]  Roger M. Cooke,et al.  Expert Judgement and the Montserrat Volcano Eruption , 1998 .

[25]  C. Waythomas,et al.  Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for Augustine Volcano, Alaska , 1998 .

[26]  R. Sparks,et al.  Causes and consequences of pressurisation in lava dome eruptions , 1997 .

[27]  B. Voight,et al.  Failure of volcano slopes , 1997 .

[28]  Bernard A. Chouet,et al.  Long-period volcano seismicity: its source and use in eruption forecasting , 1996, Nature.

[29]  S. Day Hydrothermal pore fluid pressure and the stability of porous, permeable volcanoes , 1996, Geological Society, London, Special Publications.

[30]  W. McGuire,et al.  Volcano instability: a review of contemporary themes , 1996, Geological Society, London, Special Publications.

[31]  L. Siebert Hazards of Large Volcanic Debris Avalanches and Associated Eruptive Phenomena , 1996 .

[32]  P. Okubo,et al.  Structure of the mobile south flank of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii , 1995 .

[33]  G. Wadge,et al.  The Socompa collapse and avalanche event , 1995 .

[34]  R. R. Cornelius,et al.  Graphical and PC-software analysis of volcano eruption precursors according to the Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) , 1995 .

[35]  P. Jansma,et al.  Sector collapse in island arc volcanoes: a digital topographic and bathymetric investigation of the Qualibou Depression, St. Lucia, Lesser Antilles , 1995 .

[36]  S. Williams,et al.  Catastrophic Volcanic Collapse: Relation to Hydrothermal Processes , 1993, Science.

[37]  L. Siebert Threats from debris avalanches , 1992, Nature.

[38]  M. Sheridan,et al.  Giant debris avalanches from the Colima Volcanic Complex, Mexico: Implications for long-runout landslides (>100 km) and hazard assessment , 1992 .

[39]  J. Beget,et al.  Cyclic formation of debris avalanches at Mount St Augustine volcano , 1992, Nature.

[40]  Elliot T. Endo,et al.  Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM): a volcano monitoring and prediction tool , 1991 .

[41]  R. R. Cornelius,et al.  Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time , 1991, Nature.

[42]  G. Boudon,et al.  The primitive volcano of Mount Pelée: its construction and partial destruction by flank collapse , 1989 .

[43]  M. C. Isaacs,et al.  Mapping the volcanic hazards from Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies using an image processor , 1988, Journal of the Geological Society.

[44]  B. Voight,et al.  A method for prediction of volcanic eruptions , 1988, Nature.

[45]  G. Boudon,et al.  Magma and hydrothermally driven sector collapses: The 3100 and 11,500 y. B.P. eruptions of la Grande Decouverte (la Soufrière) volcano, Guadeloupe, French West Indies , 1987 .

[46]  L. Siebert,et al.  Volcanic hazards from Bezymianny- and Bandai-type eruptions , 1987 .

[47]  L. Siebert Large volcanic debris avalanches: Characteristics of source areas, deposits, and associated eruptions , 1984 .

[48]  G. Boudon,et al.  Flank failure–directed blast eruption at Soufrière, Guadeloupe, French West Indies: A 3,000-yr-old Mt. St. Helens? , 1984 .

[49]  M. J. Roobol,et al.  Calderas or gravity-slide structures in the Lesser Antilles island arc? , 1983 .

[50]  R. S. Thorpe The 1980 eruptions of Mount St. Helens, Washington: P.W. Lipman and D.R. Mullineaux (editors), United States geological survey, professional paper 1250. United States Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 1982, xxvii + 844 pp., US $35.00 (hardcover) , 1983 .

[51]  J. Latter,et al.  Tsunamis of volcanic origin: Summary of causes, with particular reference to Krakatoa, 1883 , 1981 .

[52]  P. Lipman,et al.  The 1980 eruptions of Mount St. Helens, Washington , 1981 .

[53]  Raymond M. Stateham,et al.  Chapter 16 - Acoustic Emission Techniques Applied to Slope Stability Problems , 1979 .

[54]  F. H. Newell,et al.  United States Geological Survey , 1900, Nature.