Land use and land cover change impacts on the regional climate of non-Amazonian South America: a review.

Abstract Land use and land cover change (LUCC) affects regional climate through modifications in the water balance and energy budget. These impacts are frequently expressed by: changes in the amount and frequency of precipitation and alteration of surface temperatures. In South America, most of the studies of the effects of LUCC on the local and regional climate have focused on the Amazon region (54 studies), whereas LUCC within non-Amazonian regions have been largely undermined regardless their potential importance in regulating the regional climate (19 studies). We estimated that 3.6 million km 2 of the original natural vegetation cover in non-Amazonian South America were converted into other types of land use, which is about 4 times greater than the historical Amazon deforestation. Moreover, there is evidence showing that LUCC within such fairly neglected ecosystems cause significant reductions in precipitation and increases in surface temperatures, with occasional impacts affecting neighboring or remote areas. We explore the implications of these findings in the context of water security, climatic extremes and future research priorities.

[1]  Ruth S. DeFries,et al.  Land use and local climate: A case study near Santa Cruz, Bolivia , 2004 .

[2]  C. Klink,et al.  5. Past and Current Human Occupation, and Land Use , 2002 .

[3]  P. Canziani,et al.  Climate Impacts of Deforestation/Land-Use Changes in Central South America in the PRECIS Regional Climate Model: Mean Precipitation and Temperature Response to Present and Future Deforestation Scenarios , 2012, TheScientificWorldJournal.

[4]  P. Lawrence,et al.  Land use change exacerbates tropical South American drought by sea surface temperature variability , 2011 .

[5]  T. Killeen,et al.  Diversity, composition and structure of a tropical semideciduous forest in the Chiquitanía region of Santa Cruz, Bolivia , 1998, Journal of Tropical Ecology.

[6]  Jean Paul Metzger,et al.  The Brazilian Atlantic Forest: How much is left, and how is the remaining forest distributed? Implications for conservation , 2009 .

[7]  F. Achard,et al.  Determination of Deforestation Rates of the World's Humid Tropical Forests , 2002, Science.

[8]  G. Meehl,et al.  The Importance of Land-Cover Change in Simulating Future Climates , 2005, Science.

[9]  Andrés Etter,et al.  Land Cover Change in Colombia: Surprising Forest Recovery Trends between 2001 and 2010 , 2012, PloS one.

[10]  R. Betts,et al.  Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and observational evidence , 2011 .

[11]  A. Bisigato,et al.  Ecohydrological effects of grazing-induced degradation in the Patagonian Monte, Argentina. , 2009 .

[12]  Mario E. Niklitschek Trade Liberalization and Land Use Changes: Explaining the Expansion of Afforested Land in Chile , 2007 .

[13]  P. Richards Exchange Rates, Soybean Supply Response, and Deforestation in South America , 2012 .

[14]  R. Betts,et al.  The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases , 2002, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[15]  Christopher B. Field,et al.  Direct impacts on local climate of sugar-cane expansion in Brazil , 2011 .

[16]  V. Brovkin,et al.  On the stability of the atmosphere‐vegetation system in the Sahara/Sahel region , 1998 .

[17]  A. Gentry,et al.  Biological Extinction in Western Ecuador , 1991 .

[18]  C. Justice,et al.  High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change , 2013, Science.

[19]  C. Field,et al.  Simulated hydroclimatic impacts of projected Brazilian sugarcane expansion , 2013 .

[20]  José M. Paruelo,et al.  Characterizing fragmentation in temperate South America grasslands , 2006 .

[21]  M. Rusticucci,et al.  Observed Trends and Changes in Temperature Extremes over Argentina , 2004 .

[22]  R. Lund,et al.  Impacts of land use/land cover change on climate and future research priorities , 2010 .

[23]  L. Morellato,et al.  Introduction: The Brazilian Atlantic Forest 1 , 2000 .

[24]  H. Grau,et al.  Deforestation and fragmentation of Chaco dry forest in NW Argentina (1972–2007) , 2009 .

[25]  Scott D. Miller,et al.  SEASONALITY OF WATER AND HEAT FLUXES OVER A TROPICAL FOREST IN EASTERN AMAZONIA , 2004 .

[26]  R. DeFries,et al.  A global overview of the conservation status of tropical dry forests , 2006 .

[27]  S. Pérez,et al.  Changes in rainfall patterns in the eastern area of La Pampa province, Argentina , 2012 .

[28]  J. Paruelo,et al.  Long-term Satellite NDVI Data Sets: Evaluating Their Ability to Detect Ecosystem Functional Changes in South America , 2008, Sensors.

[29]  James McPhee,et al.  Revealing the impact of forest exotic plantations on water yield in large scale watersheds in South-Central Chile , 2009 .

[30]  Laura E. Hoyos,et al.  Deforestation and precipitation patterns in the Arid Chaco forests of central Argentina , 2013 .

[31]  S. Vicuña,et al.  Agriculture Vulnerability to Climate Change in a Snowmelt-Driven Basin in Semiarid Chile , 2012 .

[32]  E. Bucher,et al.  Sustainable management of the Gran Chaco of South America: Ecological promise and economic constraints , 1999 .

[33]  L. Brown,et al.  Exhaled Breath Condensate: A Promising Source for Biomarkers of Lung Disease , 2012, TheScientificWorldJournal.

[34]  J. Rodríguez,et al.  Tropical Dry Forests of Venezuela: Characterization and Current Conservation Status 1 , 2005 .

[35]  Gregg M. Garfin,et al.  Water Security and Adaptive Management in the Arid Americas , 2013 .

[36]  Faisal Hossain,et al.  The influence of large dams on surrounding climate and precipitation patterns , 2011 .

[37]  J. V. Revadekar,et al.  Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation , 2006 .

[38]  Christopher B. Field,et al.  Land-Cover and Surface Water Change Drive Large Albedo Increases in South America* , 2011 .

[39]  El efecto de las plantaciones forestales sobre el funcionamiento de los ecosistemas sudamericanos The effect of tree plantations on south american ecosystems functioning , 2009 .

[40]  C. Nobre,et al.  Concurrent climate impacts of tropical South America land‐cover change , 2011 .

[41]  C. Nobre,et al.  Climatic Consequences of a Large-Scale Desertification in Northeast Brazil: A GCM Simulation Study , 2004 .

[42]  Edson E. Sano,et al.  Land cover mapping of the tropical savanna region in Brazil , 2010, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[43]  H. Grau,et al.  Carbon Pools and Emissions from Deforestation in Extra-Tropical Forests of Northern Argentina Between 1900 and 2005 , 2008, Ecosystems.

[44]  Luis Cayuela,et al.  Author ' s personal copy Monitoring land cover change of the dryland forest landscape of Central Chile ( 1975 – 2008 ) , 2010 .

[45]  Adrian C. Newton,et al.  Spatially explicit models to analyze forest loss and fragmentation between 1976 and 2020 in southern Chile , 2008 .

[46]  Lara M. Kueppers,et al.  Irrigation cooling effect: Regional climate forcing by land‐use change , 2007 .

[47]  F. Woodward,et al.  FOREST COVER–RAINFALL RELATIONSHIPS IN A BIODIVERSITY HOTSPOT: THE ATLANTIC FOREST OF BRAZIL , 2005 .

[48]  Stewart J. Cohen,et al.  Climate Change 2014: Impacts,Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2014 .

[49]  M. Sivapalan,et al.  Threshold behaviour in hydrological systems as (human) geo-ecosystems: Manifestations, controls, implications , 2009 .

[50]  N. Kalthoff,et al.  The Impact of Agricultural Activities on Fog Formation in an Arid Zone of Chile , 2008 .

[51]  R. B. Jackson,et al.  Groundwater and soil chemical changes under phreatophytic tree plantations , 2007 .

[52]  G. Bonan Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests , 2008, Science.

[53]  R. B. Jackson,et al.  Vegetation–Climate Feedbacks in the Conversion of Tropical Savanna to Grassland , 2000 .

[54]  Peter E. Thornton,et al.  Simulating the Biogeochemical and Biogeophysical Impacts of Transient Land Cover Change and Wood Harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100 , 2012 .

[55]  K. Farley,et al.  Grasslands to Tree Plantations: Forest Transition in the Andes of Ecuador , 2007 .

[56]  R. Mittermeier,et al.  Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities , 2000, Nature.

[57]  J. Quintana,et al.  Changes in the rainfall regime along the extratropical west coast of South America (Chile): 30-43º S , 2012 .

[58]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply , 2010, Nature.

[59]  R. Deo,et al.  Impact of historical land cover change on daily indices of climate extremes including droughts in eastern Australia , 2009 .

[60]  N. Diffenbaugh,et al.  Higher Hydroclimatic Intensity with Global Warming , 2011 .

[61]  R. Avissar,et al.  Global Hydroclimatological Teleconnections Resulting from Tropical Deforestation , 2005 .

[62]  G. Sánchez‐Azofeifa,et al.  Extent and conservation of tropical dry forests in the Americas , 2010 .

[63]  H. Possingham,et al.  Historical Patterns and Drivers of Landscape Change in Colombia Since 1500: A Regionalized Spatial Approach , 2008 .

[64]  George C. Hurtt,et al.  The effects of deforestation on the hydrological cycle in Amazonia: a review on scale and resolution , 2007 .

[65]  J. Metzger,et al.  Experiences from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: ecological findings and conservation initiatives. , 2014, The New phytologist.

[66]  Ragab Ragab,et al.  Hydrological response of a Brazilian semi‐arid catchment to different land use and climate change scenarios: a modelling study , 2010 .

[67]  Y. Sud,et al.  A study of the influence of surface albedo on July circulation in semi‐arid regions using the glas GCM , 1982 .

[68]  E. Dinerstein,et al.  A Conservation Assessment of the Terrestrial Ecoregions of Latin America and the Caribbean , 1995, Environmental Conservation.

[69]  Roger A. Pielke,et al.  Impacts of the agricultural Green Revolution-induced land use changes on air temperatures in India , 2007 .

[70]  G. Baldi,et al.  Tree Plantation in South America and The Water Cycle: Impacts and Emergent Opportunities , 2011 .

[71]  P. Jones,et al.  Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America , 2013 .

[72]  C. Pendry,et al.  Neotropical seasonally dry forests and Quaternary vegetation changes , 2000 .

[73]  K. Tansey,et al.  Landscape transformations in savannas of northern South America: Land use/cover changes since 1987 in the Llanos Orientales of Colombia , 2012 .

[74]  C. Brannstrom,et al.  Access Regimes and Regional Land Change in the Brazilian Cerrado, 1972–2002 , 2010 .

[75]  Damien Sulla-Menashe,et al.  MODIS Collection 5 global land cover: Algorithm refinements and characterization of new datasets , 2010 .

[76]  J. Charney Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel , 1975 .

[77]  B. Mertens,et al.  Modeling Deforestation at Distinct Geographic Scales and Time Periods in Santa Cruz, Bolivia , 2004 .

[78]  M. Rietkerk,et al.  Ecohydrological advances and applications in plant-water relations research: a review , 2011 .

[79]  J. Otterman Enhancement of surface-atmosphere fluxes by desert-fringe vegetation through reduction of surface albedo and of soil heat flux , 1989 .

[80]  Esteban G. Jobbágy,et al.  Ecological and environmental footprint of 50 years of agricultural expansion in Argentina , 2011 .

[81]  James S. Famiglietti,et al.  Irrigation in California's Central Valley strengthens the southwestern U.S. water cycle , 2013 .

[82]  Valéry Masson,et al.  Scaling the Daytime Urban Heat Island and Urban-Breeze Circulation , 2010 .

[83]  Globalization and Soybean Expansion into Semiarid Ecosystems of Argentina , 2005 .

[84]  J. Alonso,et al.  Runoff modifications due to the conversion of natural grasslands to forests in a large basin in Uruguay , 2009 .

[85]  Ramesh P. Singh,et al.  Influence of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on atmospheric dynamics over the arid region of Rajasthan state, India , 2013 .

[86]  M. Tedesco,et al.  An updated Antarctic melt record through 2009 and its linkages to high‐latitude and tropical climate variability , 2009 .

[87]  S. Christopher,et al.  Land use change impacts on regional climate over Kilimanjaro , 2011 .

[88]  A. Rescia,et al.  Stress and disturbance: vegetation dynamics in the dry Chaco region of Argentina , 1990 .

[89]  J. Townshend,et al.  Rapid loss of Paraguay's Atlantic forest and the status of protected areas — A Landsat assessment , 2007 .

[90]  P. Dirmeyer,et al.  University of Nebraska-Lincoln DigitalCommons @ University of Nebraska-Lincoln Papers in Natural Resources Natural Resources , School of 2014 Land cover changes and their biogeophysical effects on climate , 2016 .

[91]  J. Marengo,et al.  Observed and projected changes in rainfall extremes in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo , 2013 .

[92]  T. Aide,et al.  Implications of Rural–Urban Migration for Conservation of the Atlantic Forest and Urban Growth in Misiones, Argentina (1970–2030) , 2011, AMBIO.

[93]  A. Grimm,et al.  ENSO and Extreme Rainfall Events in South America , 2009 .

[94]  E. Kalnay,et al.  Impact of land use and precipitation changes on surface temperature trends in Argentina , 2008 .

[95]  José M. Paruelo,et al.  Cambios en el uso de la tierra en Argentina y Uruguay: marcos conceptuales para su análisis , 2006, Agrociencia.

[96]  Adrian C. Newton,et al.  Rapid deforestation and fragmentation of Chilean Temperate Forests , 2006 .

[97]  T. Mitchell Aide,et al.  Agriculture expansion and deforestation in seasonally dry forests of north-west Argentina , 2005, Environmental Conservation.

[98]  Marcelo R. Zak,et al.  Do subtropical seasonal forests in the Gran Chaco, Argentina, have a future? , 2004 .

[99]  Hans von Storch,et al.  Taking Serial Correlation into Account in Tests of the Mean. , 1995 .

[100]  P. Richards Soy, Cotton, and the Final Atlantic Forest Frontier , 2011 .

[101]  Modeling the impact of historical land cover change on Australia's regional climate , 2007 .

[102]  Ann Henderson-Sellers,et al.  Global climate sensitivity to tropical deforestation , 1995 .

[103]  M. Arroyo,et al.  Ecology and Biogeography of Mediterranean Ecosystems in Chile, California, and Australia , 1995, Ecological Studies.

[104]  Y. Sud,et al.  Influence of evaporation in semi‐arid regions on the July circulation: A numerical study , 1984 .

[105]  J. Townshend,et al.  Assessment of Paraguay's forest cover change using Landsat observations , 2009 .

[106]  Eros Comunello,et al.  From forest to waste: Assessment of the Brazilian soybean chain, using nitrogen as a marker. , 2008 .

[107]  P. K. Snyder,et al.  Evaluating the influence of different vegetation biomes on the global climate , 2004 .

[108]  G. Powell,et al.  Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World: A New Map of Life on Earth , 2001 .

[109]  M. H. Costa,et al.  Deforestation causes different subregional effects on the Amazon bioclimatic equilibrium , 2013 .

[110]  J. Ruiz,et al.  Land–Atmosphere Interactions during a Northwestern Argentina Low Event , 2010 .

[111]  Robert B. Jackson,et al.  The hydrologic consequences of land cover change in central Argentina , 2012 .

[112]  A. Pitman,et al.  Impact of land cover change on the climate of southwest Western Australia , 2004 .

[113]  E. Wheaton,et al.  Climatic trends and impact of climate change on agriculture in an arid Andean valley , 2012, Climatic Change.

[114]  Jonathan Barichivich,et al.  Long-term glacier variations in the Central Andes of Argentina and Chile, inferred from historical records and tree-ring reconstructed precipitation , 2009 .

[115]  J. Metzger Conservation issues in the Brazilian Atlantic forest , 2009 .

[116]  Marcos Heil Costa,et al.  Cerrado Conservation is Essential to Protect the Amazon Rainforest , 2010, AMBIO.

[117]  Milena Holmgren,et al.  Persistent Acacia savannas replace Mediterranean sclerophyllous forests in South America , 2011 .

[118]  M. Oyama,et al.  Climatic consequences of gradual desertification in the semi-arid area of Northeast Brazil , 2011 .

[119]  Wolfram Mauser,et al.  The Impact of Land Cover Change on Surface Energy and Water Balance in Mato Grosso, Brazil , 2006 .

[120]  S. Saatchi,et al.  Examining Fragmentation and Loss of Primary Forest in the Southern Bahian Atlantic Forest of Brazil with Radar Imagery , 2001 .

[121]  C. S. Holling,et al.  Regime Shifts, Resilience, and Biodiversity in Ecosystem Management , 2004 .

[122]  D. Liverman,et al.  Neoliberalism and the Environment in Latin America , 2006 .

[123]  Ary T. Oliveira-Filho,et al.  Patterns of Floristic Differentiation among Atlantic Forests in Southeastern Brazil and the Influence of Climate1 , 2000 .

[124]  Axel Bronstert,et al.  Regional integrated modelling of climate change impacts on natural resources and resource usage in semi-arid Northeast Brazil , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[125]  Pablo A. Marquet,et al.  From the Holocene to the Anthropocene: A historical framework for land cover change in southwestern South America in the past 15,000 years , 2010 .

[126]  Marcelo Nosetto,et al.  Radiation budget changes with dry forest clearing in temperate Argentina , 2013, Global change biology.

[127]  J. A. Ratter,et al.  Neotropical Savannas and Seasonally Dry Forests : Plant Diversity, Biogeography, and Conservation , 2006 .

[128]  Marcos Heil Costa,et al.  Effects of Amazon and Central Brazil deforestation scenarios on the duration of the dry season in the arc of deforestation , 2010 .

[129]  Compton J. Tucker,et al.  Tropical deforestation in the Bolivian Amazon , 2000, SPIE Defense + Commercial Sensing.

[130]  C. Brannstrom,et al.  Land change in the Brazilian Savanna (Cerrado), 1986–2002: Comparative analysis and implications for land-use policy , 2008 .

[131]  D. Randall,et al.  A Revised Land Surface Parameterization (SiB2) for Atmospheric GCMS. Part I: Model Formulation , 1996 .

[132]  M. Andrade,et al.  Recent changes in flood risk in the Gran La Plata, Buenos Aires province, Argentina: causes and management strategy , 2007 .

[133]  Christopher B. Field,et al.  Central and South America , 2014 .

[134]  J. Collins,et al.  Temperature Variability over South America , 2009 .

[135]  P. Štěpánek,et al.  20th-century glacier recession and regional hydroclimatic changes in northwestern Patagonia , 2008 .

[136]  E. Davidson,et al.  Deep root function in soil water dynamics in cerrado savannas of central Brazil , 2005 .

[137]  A. Ravelo,et al.  Assessing deforestation in the Argentine Chaco , 2006 .

[138]  C. Portillo-Quintero,et al.  Forest cover and deforestation patterns in the Northern Andes (Lake Maracaibo Basin): A synoptic assessment using MODIS and Landsat imagery , 2012 .

[139]  Manoel Cardoso,et al.  Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion , 2007 .

[140]  T. Mitchell Aide,et al.  A scalable approach to mapping annual land cover at 250 m using MODIS time series data: A case study in the Dry Chaco ecoregion of South America , 2010 .

[141]  C. Portillo-Quintero,et al.  Extent and Drivers of Change of Neotropical Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests , 2011 .

[142]  S. Díaz,et al.  What Drives Accelerated Land Cover Change in Central Argentina? Synergistic Consequences of Climatic, Socioeconomic, and Technological Factors , 2008, Environmental management.

[143]  O. Sala,et al.  Current Distribution of Ecosystem Functional Types in Temperate South America , 2001, Ecosystems.

[144]  M. Uriarte,et al.  The energy balance, evapo-transpiration and nocturnal dew deposition of an arid valley in the Andes , 2006 .

[145]  C. Leal,et al.  Brief history of conservation in the Interior Atlantic Forest. , 2003 .

[146]  Jianjun Ge,et al.  MODIS observed impacts of intensive agriculture on surface temperature in the southern Great Plains , 2010 .

[147]  R. Pielke Sr.,et al.  Modelling the effects of land‐use/land‐cover changes on the near‐surface atmosphere in southern South America , 2012 .

[148]  A. Rinaldo,et al.  Ecohydrology of Terrestrial Ecosystems , 2010 .

[149]  Thomas E. Lacher,et al.  Changing the Course of Biodiversity Conservation in the Caatinga of Northeastern Brazil , 2005 .

[150]  C. E. Young,et al.  Socioeconomic causes of deforestation in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. , 2003 .

[151]  L. Ferreira,et al.  Agriculture, habitat loss and spatial patterns of human occupation in a biodiversity hotspot , 2009 .

[152]  Michael T. Coe,et al.  Dependence of hydropower energy generation on forests in the Amazon Basin at local and regional scales , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[153]  Anton Huber,et al.  Effect of Pinus radiata plantations on water balance in Chile , 2008 .

[154]  E. Berbery,et al.  Land Cover Change Effects on the Climate of the La Plata Basin , 2012 .

[155]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems , 2001, Nature.

[156]  R. DeFries,et al.  Effects of Land Cover Conversion on Surface Climate , 2002 .