Study on distribution of flood forecasting errors by the method based on maximum entropy

The method based on the principle of maximum entropy(POME) is applied to analyze the distributions of flood forecasting errors for some typical reservoirs in humid and semi-humid regions.The probability density function of net rainfall relative errors,flood peak discharge relative errors and the time error of the forecasted flood peak are calculated by the model developed.It is found that the distributions of flood forecasting errors both in humid or semi-humid region approximately obey the law of normal distribution and the method based on POME is effective for calculating the distribution of flood forecasting errors.