The Price of Oil – Will it Start Rising Again?

Following a sharp drop amidst the global economic crisis and a subsequent recovery, the spot price of crude oil has been broadly stable for the past couple of years. This paper discusses the factors that drive oil demand and supply and, hence, the price of the resource. A set of oil demand equations is estimated for OECD and non-OECD countries, which is then combined with assumptions about the behaviour of supply to analyse the impact of a range of macroeconomic and policy scenarios on the future oil price path. The scenario analysis suggests that a return of world growth to slightly below pre-crisis rates would be consistent with an increase in the price of Brent crude to far above early-2012 levels by 2020. This increase would be mostly driven by higher demand from non-OECD economies – in particular China and India. The expected rise in the oil price is unlikely to be smooth. Sudden changes in the supply or demand of oil can have very large effects on the price in the short run. Le prix du petrole – va-t-il recommencer a augmenter ? Apres une forte baisse lors de la crise economique mondiale et une reprise ulterieure, le prix du petrole brut est reste globalement stable depuis quelques annees. Ce document examine les determinants de la demande et de l?offre de petrole et, par consequent, du prix de cette ressource. Un ensemble d?equations de demande estimees pour les pays membres et non membres de l?OCDE est combine a des hypotheses sur le comportement de l?offre pour analyser l?effet d?un eventail de scenarios macroeconomiques et politiques sur la tendance future du prix du petrole. Cette analyse suggere que le retour de la croissance mondiale a un niveau legerement inferieur au taux observe avant la crise pourraient entrainer le prix du baril de Brent d?ici 2020 bien au-dessus du niveau observe debut 2012. Cette hausse principalement tiree par une demande soutenue des pays non membres de l?OCDE, notamment la Chine et l?Inde. Cette hausse du prix du petrole a peu de chance d?etre reguliere. Des modifications soudaines de l?offre ou de la demande de petrole peuvent avoir des effets importants sur les prix du petrole a court terme.

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