Uncertainty Analysis of Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Systems Based on Frame 7H versus 7F Gas Turbines

Abstract Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology is a promising alternative for clean generation of power and coproduction of chemicals from coal and other feedstocks. Advanced concepts for IGCC systems that incorporate state-of-the-art gas turbine systems, however, are not commercially demonstrated. Therefore, there is uncertainty regarding the future commercial-scale performance, emissions, and cost of such technologies. The Frame 7F gas turbine represents current state-of-practice, whereas the Frame 7H is the most recently introduced advanced commercial gas turbine. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risks and potential payoffs of IGCC technology based on different gas turbine combined cycle designs. Models of entrained-flow gasifier-based IGCC systems with Frame 7F (IGCC-7F) and 7H gas turbine combined cycles (IGCC-7H) were developed in ASPEN Plus. An uncertainty analysis was conducted. Gasifier carbon conversion and project cost uncertainty are identified as the most important uncertain inputs with respect to system performance and cost. The uncertainties in the difference of the efficiencies and costs for the two systems are characterized. Despite uncertainty, the IGCC-7H system is robustly preferred to the IGCC-7F system. Advances in gas turbine design will improve the performance, emissions, and cost of IGCC systems. The implications of this study for decision-making regarding technology selection, research planning, and plant operation are discussed.

[1]  Yunhua Zhu.  Evaluation of Gas Turbine and Gasifier-based Power Generation System , 2004 .

[2]  H. Christopher Frey,et al.  Probabilistic Techniques in Exposure Assessment: A Handbook for Dealing with Variability and Uncertainty in Models and Inputs , 1999 .

[3]  Neville A.H. Holt,et al.  Operating experience and improvement opportunities for coal-based IGCC plants , 2003 .

[4]  H Christopher Frey,et al.  OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS , 2001 .

[5]  Max Henrion,et al.  Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis , 1990 .

[6]  Jay A. Ratafia-brown,et al.  Major Environmental Aspects of Gasification-Based Power Generation Technologies , 2002 .

[7]  Edward S. Rubin,et al.  Stochastic modeling of chemical processes , 1991 .

[8]  Bruno Facchini,et al.  Comparison between two gas turbine solutions to increase combined power plant efficiency , 2000 .

[9]  Edward S. Rubin,et al.  Integrated Environmental Control Modeling of Coal-Fired Power Systems , 1997 .

[10]  Edward S. Rubin,et al.  Evaluation of advanced coal gasification combined-cycle systems under uncertainty , 1992 .

[11]  James E. Staudt.  Optimizing Compliance Cost for Coal-Fired Electric Generating Facilities in a Multipollutant Control Environment , 2004 .

[12]  Edward S. Rubin,et al.  Modeling uncertainties in advanced technologies: Application to a coal gasification system with hot-gas cleanup , 1994 .

[13]  E. S. Rubin,et al.  Development and application of a probabilistic evaluation method for advanced process technologies , 1991 .

[14]  Edward S. Rubin,et al.  Optimal design of advanced power systems under uncertainty , 1997 .

[15]  Edward S. Rubin,et al.  Probabilistic Evaluation of Advanced SO2/NOx Control Technology , 1991 .

[16]  Subpart.  PART 96 — NO X Budget Trading Program for State Implementation Plans , .

[17]  H. Christopher Frey,et al.  Probabilistic Modeling and Evaluation of the Performance, Emissions, and Cost of Texaco Gasifier- Based Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle , 2001 .

[18]  Edward S. Rubin,et al.  Integration of coal utilization and environmental control in integrated gasification combined cycle systems , 1992 .

[19]  F. J. Davis,et al.  Illustration of Sampling‐Based Methods for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis , 2002, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[20]  Chris Hope.  Uncertainty in full fuel cycle costs , 1996 .

[21]  Michael J. Roberts,et al.  GASIFICATION PLANT COST AND PERFORMANCE OPTIMIZATION , 2005 .

[22]  Wilson H. Tang,et al.  Probability concepts in engineering planning and design , 1984 .

[23]  W. Mendenhall,et al.  Statistics for engineering and the sciences , 1984 .