Pairwise scale space comparison of time series with application to climate research

[1] In this paper, we study how sea surface temperature variations in the North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea are correlated with the climate in the Northern Hemisphere in late Holocene. The analysis is performed by testing statistical hypotheses through novel scale space methodologies. In late Holocene, the proposed techniques reveal that the climate development in the subpolar North Atlantic has been incoherent with the development in the Norwegian Sea and the Northern Hemisphere. A prominent discrepancy between the three analyzed series is identified for the periods associated with the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. A divergence between the oceanic series and the global Northern Hemisphere temperature estimate detected in the twentieth century is in line with the inferred imprint of recent climate change which suggests accentuated warming, in particular over continental regions. Overall, the results obtained by scale space analysis underscore the significance of the northern North Atlantic in shaping the climate globally, mainly through changes in the strength and structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

[1]  J. Bjerknes.  Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction , 1964 .

[2]  H. Lamb.  The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel , 1965 .

[3]  Gwilym M. Jenkins,et al.  Time series analysis, forecasting and control , 1972 .

[4]  Gwilym M. Jenkins,et al.  Time series analysis, forecasting and control , 1971 .

[5]  N. Lomb.  Least-squares frequency analysis of unequally spaced data , 1976 .

[6]  J. Scargle.  Studies in astronomical time series analysis. II - Statistical aspects of spectral analysis of unevenly spaced data , 1982 .

[7]  Susan K. Avery,et al.  Estimation of randomly sampled sinusoids in additive noise , 1988, IEEE Trans. Acoust. Speech Signal Process..

[8]  The Little Ice Age , 1989 .

[9]  H. Schrader,et al.  Surface sediment diatom distribution and Holocene paleotemperature variations in the Greenland, Iceland and Norwegian Sea , 1990 .

[10]  Richard A. Davis,et al.  Time Series: Theory and Methods , 2013 .

[11]  R. Bradley,et al.  'Little Ice Age' summer temperature variations: their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends , 1993 .

[12]  Jianqing Fan,et al.  Local polynomial modelling and its applications , 1994 .

[13]  B. Silverman,et al.  Nonparametric regression and generalized linear models , 1994 .

[14]  B. Silverman,et al.  Nonparametric Regression and Generalized Linear Models: A roughness penalty approach , 1993 .

[15]  Tony Lindeberg,et al.  Scale-Space Theory in Computer Vision , 1993, Lecture Notes in Computer Science.

[16]  Malcolm K. Hughes,et al.  Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries , 1998, Nature.

[17]  Abdeldjalil Ouahabi,et al.  Spectrum estimation from randomly sampled velocity data [LDV] , 1998, IEEE Trans. Instrum. Meas..

[18]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Northern hemispheric interdecadal variability : A coupled air-sea mode , 1998 .

[19]  J. Marron,et al.  SiZer for Exploration of Structures in Curves , 1999 .

[20]  S. Manabe,et al.  The rôle of thermohaline circulation in climate , 1999 .

[21]  M. Hughes,et al.  Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations , 1999 .

[22]  Crowley,et al.  Atmospheric science: Methane rises from wetlands , 2011, Nature.

[23]  David S. Stoffer,et al.  Time series analysis and its applications , 2000 .

[24]  Richard G. Baraniuk,et al.  Multiple Window Time Varying Spectrum Estimation , 2000 .

[25]  W. Broecker,et al.  Was a change in thermohaline circulation responsible for the Little Ice Age? , 2000, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[26]  Patrick J. Loughlin,et al.  Multiple window time-varying spectral analysis , 2001, IEEE Trans. Signal Process..

[27]  A. Waple,et al.  Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum , 2001, Science.

[28]  James W. Hurrell,et al.  North Atlantic climate variability: phenomena, impacts and mechanisms , 2001 .

[29]  Richard A. Wood,et al.  Global Climatic Impacts of a Collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation , 2002 .

[30]  Probal Chaudhuri,et al.  Significance in Scale Space for Bivariate Density Estimation , 2002 .

[31]  Fred Godtliebsen,et al.  Recent developments in statistical time series analysis: Examples of use in climate research , 2003 .

[32]  Michael E. Mann,et al.  Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia , 2003 .

[33]  Malcolm K. Hughes,et al.  Climate in Medieval Time , 2003, Science.

[34]  James Stephen Marron,et al.  Dependent SiZer: Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Time Series Models , 2004 .

[35]  Steve Juggins,et al.  Weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS): an improved method for reconstructing environmental variables from species assemblages , 1993, Hydrobiologia.

[36]  J. Andrews,et al.  Nonuniform response of the major surface currents in the Nordic Seas to insolation forcing: Implications for the Holocene climate variability , 2004 .

[37]  Michael Botzet,et al.  Reconstructing, Monitoring, and Predicting Multidecadal-Scale Changes in the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation with Sea Surface Temperature , 2004 .

[38]  Probal Chaudhuri,et al.  Statistical significance of features in digital images , 2004, Image Vis. Comput..

[39]  K. Holmgren,et al.  Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data , 2005, Nature.

[40]  Jeff Knight,et al.  A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate , 2005 .

[41]  E. Milotti.  Sine-fit procedure for unevenly sampled, multiply clocked signals , 2005 .

[42]  Frank Klawonn,et al.  Clustering of unevenly sampled gene expression time-series data , 2005, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[43]  David J. Karoly,et al.  Detection of Regional Surface Temperature Trends , 2005 .

[44]  Lasse Holmström,et al.  Bayesian Multiscale Smoothing for Making Inferences About Features in Scatterplots , 2005 .

[45]  Anders Moberg,et al.  Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation , 2006 .

[46]  R. Stouffer,et al.  Assessment of Twentieth-Century Regional Surface Temperature Trends using the GFDL CM2 Coupled Models , 2006 .

[47]  Jan Hannig,et al.  Robust SiZer for Exploration of Regression Structures and Outlier Detection , 2006 .

[48]  James Stephen Marron,et al.  Advanced Distribution Theory for SiZer , 2006 .

[49]  J. S. Marron,et al.  Visualization and inference based on wavelet coefficients, SiZer and SiNos , 2007, Comput. Stat. Data Anal..

[50]  Lasse Holmström,et al.  Bayesian analysis of features in a scatter plot with dependent observations and errors in predictors , 2007 .

[51]  Fred Godtliebsen,et al.  A Scale‐space Approach for Detecting Non‐stationarities in Time Series , 2007 .

[52]  S. Solomon.  The Physical Science Basis : Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[53]  Jun Xian,et al.  Detecting Periodically Expression in Unevenly Spaced Microarray Time Series , 2007, International Conference on Computational Science.

[54]  M. Hughes,et al.  Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[55]  F. Godtliebsen,et al.  A decadal‐scale Holocene sea surface temperature record from the subpolar North Atlantic constructed using diatoms and statistics and its relation to other climate parameters , 2008 .

[56]  U. Cubasch,et al.  Mid- to Late Holocene climate change: an overview , 2008 .

[57]  Cheolwoo Park,et al.  SiZer analysis for the comparison of regression curves , 2008, Comput. Stat. Data Anal..

[58]  K. Hocke,et al.  Gap filling and noise reduction of unevenly sampled data by means of the Lomb-Scargle periodogram , 2008 .

[59]  H. Elderfield,et al.  Holocene oscillations in temperature and salinity of the surface subpolar North Atlantic , 2009, Nature.

[60]  N. Graham,et al.  Persistent Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Mode Dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly , 2009, Science.

[61]  G. Faluvegi,et al.  Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly , 2009, Science.

[62]  Lasse Holmström.  Scale space methods , 2010 .

[63]  F. Godtliebsen,et al.  Holocene climate variability of the Norwegian Atlantic Current during high and low solar insolation forcing , 2011 .

[64]  F. Godtliebsen,et al.  North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and their relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation during the last 230 years , 2011 .

[65]  A. Voldoire,et al.  Natural forcing of climate during the last millennium: fingerprint of solar variability , 2011 .

[66]  Fred Godtliebsen,et al.  Multicentennial Variability of the Sea Surface Temperature Gradient across the Subpolar North Atlantic over the Last 2.8 kyr , 2012 .