Lunar precursor missions for human exploration of Mars--III: studies of system reliability and maintenance.

Discussions of future human expeditions into the solar system generally focus on whether the next explorers ought to go to the Moon or to Mars. The only mission scenario developed in any detail within NASA is an expedition to Mars with a 500-day stay at the surface. The technological capabilities and the operational experience base required for such a mission do not now exist nor has any self-consistent program plan been proposed to acquire them. In particular, the lack of an Abort-to-Earth capability implies that critical mission systems must perform reliably for 3 years or must be maintainable and repairable by the crew. As has been previously argued, a well-planned program of human exploration of the Moon would provide a context within which to develop the appropriate technologies because a lunar expedition incorporates many of the operational elements of a Mars expedition. Initial lunar expeditions can be carried out at scales consistent with the current experience base but can be expanded in any or all operational phases to produce an experience base necessary to successfully and safely conduct human exploration of Mars.