Modelling the Dynamics of Housing and Population Change in Kampala City, Uganda

The construction industry in Uganda is characterized by a high incidence rate of accidents. During the late 1990s, an annual average of 49 accidents were reported in the construction industry while during the period 2001 to 2005, the annual average for this sector was 103 cases. Between 2006 and 2010, more construction accidents were registered with a total of 49 fatalities reported in Kampala metropolitan area alone. This trend has continued up to the present date. Meanwhile, the demand for housing in Uganda exceeds supply resulting into a huge housing deficit. Rapid population growth without matching housing facilities has been cited as the main cause of the housing deficit. Land holding in Uganda is characterized by multiple rights of ownership, and high social costs including land conflicts and violent evictions. Reportedly, these developments are affecting the performance of the housing sector. Given the above background, the aim of this thesis is to propose policies and strategies for improvement of construction safety performance and the housing sector in Uganda.The thesis is based on two broad themes i.e. construction safety performance and housing markets. Although the research themes are unique in their own right, they both address pertinent issues concerning the construction industry in Uganda. Whereas the first theme investigates accidents as events that affect the production of construction infrastructure (including housing), the second theme handles topical issues which affect the demand and supply for housing in Uganda. The study area is Kampala, the capital city of Uganda. In addition to the overview chapter, this thesis contains four research papers. The first two papers relate to theme on construction safety performance whereas the last two papers relate to theme on housing markets.The first paper investigates the causes of construction accidents in Kampala, establishes the prevailing injury and fatality rates, examines spatial patterns in occurrence of accidents and thereafter, proposes strategies of mitigating accidents. The second paper investigates how undiscovered rework (defined as unnecessary effort of redoing a process or activity that is incorrectly implemented the first time) leads to accidents, develops a computer based model for simulating occurrence of accidents on projects and thereafter, proposes strategies of reducing rework related accidents. Evidently, the first paper is explorative investigating construction safety issues at industry level, whereas the second paper is more specific studying safety dynamics at project level. The third paper investigates how the choice of land tenure system affects housing values and thereafter, proposes strategies of mitigating the negative effects of land tenure on the housing market. Finally, the fourth paper examines how population changes affect the housing needs of a city, develops a computer based model for simulating the city population and housing needs, and experiments a plethora of housing policy proposals.Overall, findings of this thesis such as the concept of spatial dependence in occurrence of construction accidents, where accidents at one location were found to be associated with those which occur in the neighborhood; the phenomenon of congestion, defined in this thesis as the existence of high building density amidst many fulltime workers on site, and its significant association with accidents occurrence; and the uniqueness of private mailo land tenure system and the 12% premium it offers in housing values amidst high social costs, are unique contributions to the existing body of knowledge.