Why does precipitation in northwest China show a significant increasing trend from 1960 to 2010

Based on monthly precipitation data from 74 weather stations in the arid region of northwest China, we employed statistical methods to analyse the characteristics of precipitation and investigated the relationships between precipitation and 11 atmospheric circulations. The results showed that the precipitation in northwest China had a significantly increasing trend (P < 0.01), at a rate of 0.61 mm/year, which is higher than the average rate of China (− 0.16 mm/year) for the same period. Annual precipitation increased markedly after 1987, but the increase in precipitation gradually declined from north to south and from west to east. We found that the precipitation variation in spring, summer, autumn, and winter plays an important role in the yearly change, accounting for 21.6%, 42.4%, 18.4%, and 17.6%, respectively. The correlation analysis indicated that the annual precipitation revealed strong and significant associations with the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH, R = 0.60, P < 0.001) and the North America Subtropical High (NASH, R = 0.57, P < 0.001) from 1960 to 2010. We therefore suggest that the strengthening of the WPSH and NASH after the mid-1980s is probably the main cause for the significant increasing trend of precipitation in northwest China.

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