Risk Analysis of Pedestrians’ Road-Crossing Decisions: Effects of Age, Time Gap, Time of Day, and Vehicle Speed

Abstract The current study investigated the effects of age, time gap, time of day, and speed of approaching vehicle on the decision of pedestrians to cross a road. Sixteen young and sixteen elderly participants were asked to watch pre-recorded videos in which a vehicle was approaching from the left and then decide the last moment at which they could safely cross. Data on pedestrians’ walking speed, road-crossing decision performance, subjective confidence ratings and walking strategies, as well as responses given in post-experiment interviews were collected as dependent variables. A logistic regression model was constructed to analyse the risk of above mentioned variables yielding the odds that the road would be crossed safely. This study found that pedestrians’ decisions on whether or not they would cross the road safely were made based on the distance between them and the oncoming vehicle; and thus the faster the vehicular approach, the higher the risk. Young pedestrians demonstrated a higher safe road-crossing ratio than their elderly counterparts. Elderly pedestrians might not have taken their decline in walking ability into consideration when they made the same road-crossing decisions as young pedestrians, resulting in a relatively higher risk of road crossing. In addition, the most significant determinant of risk was the time gap. The time gap, which is affected by the distance from the oncoming vehicle and its speed, could be easily misjudged.