Aggregating predictions from experts: A review of statistical methods, experiments, and applications
暂无分享,去创建一个
Nicholas G. Reich | Thomas McAndrew | Nutcha Wattanachit | Graham Casey Gibson | N. Reich | T. McAndrew | N. Wattanachit | G. Gibson
[1] Mario P. Brito,et al. A Behavioral Probabilistic Risk Assessment Framework for Managing Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Deployments , 2012 .
[2] Roberto Casarin,et al. Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions , 2015, 1502.07246.
[3] Georgios Paliouras,et al. Stacking Classifiers for Anti-Spam Filtering of E-Mail , 2001, EMNLP.
[4] Ian H. Witten,et al. Issues in Stacked Generalization , 2011, J. Artif. Intell. Res..
[5] P. Baldwin. Weighting Components of a Composite Score Using Naïve Expert Judgments About Their Relative Importance , 2015, Applied psychological measurement.
[6] Robert L. Winkler,et al. The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions , 1968 .
[7] A. Diederich,et al. Evaluating and Combining Subjective Probability Estimates , 1997 .
[8] Guoliang Li,et al. Human-in-the-loop Data Integration , 2017, Proc. VLDB Endow..
[9] Philippe Baecke,et al. Investigating the added value of integrating human judgement into statistical demand forecasting systems , 2017 .
[10] A. Raftery,et al. Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation , 2007 .
[11] Sebastian Lerch,et al. Combining predictive distributions for the statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts , 2016, International Journal of Forecasting.
[12] A. Graefe. Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals , 2018, Judgment and Decision Making.
[13] A. H. Murphy,et al. Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather , 1996 .
[14] Peter A. Morris,et al. Decision Analysis Expert Use , 1974 .
[15] Simon French,et al. Aggregating expert judgement , 2011 .
[16] Erim Kardes,et al. Calibration, sharpness and the weighting of experts in a linear opinion pool , 2015, Ann. Oper. Res..
[17] R. L. Winkler,et al. Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results , 1983 .
[18] C. Powell. The Delphi technique: myths and realities. , 2003, Journal of advanced nursing.
[19] J. Scott Armstrong,et al. JUDGMENTAL BOOTSTRAPPING: INFERRING EXPERTS' RULES FOR FORECASTING , 2001 .
[20] Roger Cooke,et al. Validating Expert Judgment with the Classical Model , 2014 .
[21] Tara G. Martin,et al. Understanding and predicting the combined effects of climate change and land‐use change on freshwater macroinvertebrates and fish , 2014 .
[22] Kaplan,et al. ‘Combining Probability Distributions from Experts in Risk Analysis’ , 2000, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.
[23] Samuel DiGangi,et al. Assessing unidimensionality: A comparison of Rasch modeling, Parallel analysis, and TETRAD , 2007 .
[24] Andreas Graefe,et al. Accuracy gains of adding vote expectation surveys to a combined forecast of US presidential election outcomes , 2015 .
[25] F. Paas,et al. Recent advances in expertise research , 2005 .
[26] M. G. Morgan. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[27] David H. Wolpert,et al. Stacked generalization , 1992, Neural Networks.
[28] Rakesh K. Sarin,et al. From the Editor - Median Aggregation, Scoring Rules, Expert Forecasts, Choices with Binary Attributes, Portfolio with Dependent Projects, and Information Security , 2013, Decis. Anal..
[29] R. L. Winkler,et al. Combining Economic Forecasts , 1986 .
[30] C. Granger,et al. Improved methods of combining forecasts , 1984 .
[31] Jin Wei-liang. Research progress on the durability design and life prediction of concrete structures , 2007 .
[32] Yan-ju Liu,et al. Preliminary Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Great Western Development Strategy: Safeguarding Ecological Security for a New Western China , 2011, Environmental Management.
[33] Christian Genest,et al. Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography , 1986 .
[34] Enrico Zio,et al. Accounting for expert-to-expert variability: A potential source of bias in performance assessments of high-level radioactive waste repositories , 1997 .
[35] Robin M. Hogarth,et al. Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions , 1975 .
[36] Allègre L. Hadida,et al. On the relative importance of linear model and human judge(s) in combined forecasting , 2013 .
[37] Shouyang Wang,et al. Improving Forecasting Performance by Exploiting Expert Knowledge: Evidence from Guangzhou Port , 2016, Int. J. Inf. Technol. Decis. Mak..
[38] Roy C. Amara,et al. Some views on the use of expert judgment , 1971 .
[39] Derek W. Bunn. The Synthesis of Predictive Models in Marketing Research , 1979 .
[40] J S Evans,et al. Use of probabilistic expert judgment in uncertainty analysis of carcinogenic potency. , 1994, Regulatory toxicology and pharmacology : RTP.
[41] Gwyn Griffiths,et al. A Bayesian approach for predicting risk of autonomous underwater vehicle loss during their missions , 2016, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..
[42] Jian Ma,et al. A comparative assessment of ensemble learning for credit scoring , 2011, Expert Syst. Appl..
[43] Michael Goldstein,et al. Bayesian Forecasting for Complex Systems Using Computer Simulators , 2001 .
[44] Keith J. Burnham,et al. Fuzzy decision support system for demand forecasting with a learning mechanism , 2006, Fuzzy Sets Syst..
[45] Robert T. Clemen,et al. Comment on Cooke's classical method , 2008, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..
[46] R. L. Winkler,et al. Coherent combination of experts' opinions , 1995 .
[47] Lyle H. Ungar,et al. The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions , 2012, AAAI Fall Symposium: Machine Aggregation of Human Judgment.
[48] Sarah Wordsworth,et al. Eliciting expert opinion for economic models: an applied example. , 2007, Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research.
[49] John R. Wilson,et al. The nature of expertise: a review. , 2006, Applied ergonomics.
[50] Marc Vuillet,et al. Uncertainty and Expert Assessment for Supporting Evaluation of Levees Safety , 2016 .
[51] Julio Saez-Rodriguez,et al. Crowdsourcing Network Inference: The DREAM Predictive Signaling Network Challenge , 2011, Science Signaling.
[52] F. Johnson,et al. Making do with less: must sparse data preclude informed harvest strategies for European waterbirds? , 2018, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.
[53] R. L. Winkler. Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources , 1981 .
[54] L. E. Peterson,et al. Eliciting expert opinion using the Delphi technique: identifying performance indicators for cardiovascular disease. , 1998, International journal for quality in health care : journal of the International Society for Quality in Health Care.
[55] George K. Karagiannidis,et al. Efficient Machine Learning for Big Data: A Review , 2015, Big Data Res..
[56] Khaled Rasheed,et al. Decision tree and ensemble learning algorithms with their applications in bioinformatics. , 2011, Advances in experimental medicine and biology.
[57] M. Burgman,et al. The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments , 2018, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.
[58] Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts , 2009 .
[59] M. Degroot. A Bayesian view of assessing uncertainty and comparing expert opinion , 1988 .
[60] Yael Grushka-Cockayne,et al. Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective , 2018, Decis. Anal..
[61] Fabio Wasserfallen,et al. Learning and the diffusion of regime contention in the Arab Spring , 2015 .
[62] R. H. Edmundson. Decomposition; a strategy for judgemental forecasting , 1990 .
[63] Jonathan Baron,et al. Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme , 2014, Decis. Anal..
[64] Kenneth F. Wallis,et al. Combining forecasts – forty years later , 2011 .
[65] Andreas Holzinger,et al. Interactive machine learning for health informatics: when do we need the human-in-the-loop? , 2016, Brain Informatics.
[66] Robin M. Hogarth,et al. Judgmental Versus Statistical Prediction: Information Asymmetry and Combination Rules , 1993 .
[67] Adrian E. Raftery,et al. Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts , 2007 .
[68] Brett Houlding,et al. Deriving the probability of a linear opinion pooling method being superior to a set of alternatives , 2017, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..
[69] Roger M Cooke,et al. Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie , 2014, Integrated environmental assessment and management.
[70] Bob Glahn,et al. MOS Uncertainty Estimates in an Ensemble Framework , 2009 .
[71] Stephen C. Hora,et al. Median Aggregation of Distribution Functions , 2013, Decis. Anal..
[72] William Remus,et al. Judgemental forecasting in times of change , 1993 .
[73] Graham T. F. Horn,et al. Using Expert Judgment and Stakeholder Values to Evaluate Adaptive Management Options , 2004 .
[74] Thomas L. Saaty,et al. Expert System for Ice Hockey Game Prediction: Data Mining with Human Judgment , 2016, Int. J. Inf. Technol. Decis. Mak..
[75] Marcus O'Connor,et al. Exploring judgemental forecasting , 1992 .
[76] Robert L. Winkler,et al. Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results , 1971 .
[77] Philip Hans Franses,et al. Averaging Model Forecasts and Expert Forecasts: Why Does It Work? , 2011, Interfaces.
[78] Changjun Liu,et al. On a Simple and Efficient Approach to Probability Distribution Function Aggregation , 2017, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems.
[79] John C. Alexander. Refining the Degree of Earnings Surprise: A Comparison of Statistical and Analysts' Forecasts , 1995 .
[80] Gary B. Wills,et al. Application of Bagging, Boosting and Stacking to Intrusion Detection , 2012, MLDM.
[81] R. L. Winkler,et al. Advances in Decision Analysis: Aggregating Probability Distributions , 2007 .
[82] Sydney E. Scott,et al. Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament , 2014, Psychological science.
[83] Nigel Harvey,et al. Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average? , 1999 .
[84] Hajo Hippner,et al. Crowdsourcing , 2012, Business & Information Systems Engineering.
[85] Adrian E. Raftery,et al. Locally Calibrated Probabilistic Temperature Forecasting Using Geostatistical Model Averaging and Local Bayesian Model Averaging , 2011 .
[86] Enrico Zio,et al. On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments , 1996 .
[87] R. Cooke. Elicitation of expert opinions for uncertainty and risks , 2003 .
[88] Javier M. Moguerza,et al. Combination and Selection of Traffic Safety Expert Judgments for the Prevention of Driving Risks , 2012, Sensors.
[89] B Kleinmuntz,et al. Why we still use our heads instead of formulas: toward an integrative approach. , 1990, Psychological bulletin.
[90] A. H. Murphy,et al. Probability Forecasts: A Survey of National Weather Service Forecasters , 1974 .
[91] F. Galton. Vox Populi , 1907, Nature.
[92] J. M. Bates,et al. The Combination of Forecasts , 1969 .
[93] K. Mengersen,et al. Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science , 2012, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.
[94] Haiyan Song,et al. Combining statistical and judgmental forecasts via a web-based tourism demand forecasting system , 2013 .
[95] Jeremy E. Oakley,et al. Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities , 2006 .
[96] Ray Adams,et al. An Acceptability Predictor for Websites , 2009, HCI.
[97] K. A. Ericsson,et al. Science Current Directions in Psychological of Expert and Exceptional Performance Capturing the Naturally Occurring Superior Performance of Experts in the Laboratory : toward a Science on Behalf Of: Association for Psychological Science , 2022 .
[98] Tung Bui,et al. Aggregating and updating experts' knowledge: An experimental evaluation of five classification techniques , 1996 .
[99] R. Cooke. The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight? , 2015, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.
[100] Roger Cooke,et al. Calibration and information in expert resolution; a classical approach , 1988, Autom..
[101] Mark T. Spence,et al. The moderating effects of problem characteristics on experts' and novices' judgments , 1997 .
[102] D. Bunn,et al. Interaction of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods: issues & , 1991 .
[103] E. L. Kelly. Clinical versus statistical prediction: A theoretical analysis and review of the evidence. , 1955 .
[104] Y Al-JarrahOmar,et al. Efficient Machine Learning for Big Data , 2015 .
[105] J. Armstrong,et al. PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING 1 Principles of Forecasting : A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners , 2006 .
[106] C. Lintott,et al. Galaxy Zoo: morphologies derived from visual inspection of galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey , 2008, 0804.4483.
[107] D. Bunn,et al. Statistical efficiency in the linear combination of forecasts , 1985 .
[108] Daniel M. Tartakovsky,et al. Probabilistic risk analysis in subsurface hydrology , 2007 .
[109] A. H. Murphy,et al. subjective probability forecasting experiments in meteorology: some preliminary results , 1974 .
[110] Alfred G. Cuzán,et al. Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote , 2014, PS: Political Science & Politics.
[111] Peter Willett,et al. The Porter stemming algorithm: then and now , 2006, Program.
[112] Frank Elberzhager,et al. Support planning and controlling of early quality assurance by combining expert judgment and defect data—a case study , 2010, Empirical Software Engineering.
[113] Gavin Brown,et al. Ensemble Learning , 2010, Encyclopedia of Machine Learning and Data Mining.
[114] Jack T. Dennerlein,et al. Expertise, credibility of system forecasts and integration methods in judgmental demand forecasting , 2017 .
[115] Juha M. Alho. Estimating the strength of expert judgement: The case of US mortality forecasts , 1992 .
[116] Xiaofeng Wang,et al. Probabilistic inversion techniques in quantitative risk assessment for power system load forecasting , 2008, 2008 International Conference on Information and Automation.
[117] A. Dawid. The geometry of proper scoring rules , 2007 .
[118] Yinda Zhang,et al. LSUN: Construction of a Large-scale Image Dataset using Deep Learning with Humans in the Loop , 2015, ArXiv.
[119] Rajkumar Buyya,et al. The anatomy of big data computing , 2015, Softw. Pract. Exp..
[120] M. Stone. The Opinion Pool , 1961 .
[121] T. Gneiting,et al. Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules , 2011 .
[122] Ming-Hui Chen,et al. Statistical methods and computing for big data. , 2015, Statistics and its interface.
[123] P. Goodwin,et al. Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years , 2006 .
[124] Muhammad Imran Yousuf,et al. Using Experts` Opinions Through Delphi Technique , 2007 .
[125] Mark E. Borsuk,et al. Predictive Assessment of Fish Health and Fish Kills in the Neuse River Estuary Using Elicited Expert Judgment , 2004 .
[126] Dorota Kurowicka,et al. Probabilistic Inversion in Priority Setting of Emerging Zoonoses , 2010, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.
[127] T. Gneiting,et al. Combining Predictive Distributions , 2011, 1106.1638.
[128] O. M. Nápoles,et al. Delft University of Technology Characterization of Precipitation through Copulas and Expert Judgement for Risk Assessment of Infrastructure , 2017 .
[129] Reid Priedhorsky,et al. Epidemic Forecasting is Messier Than Weather Forecasting: The Role of Human Behavior and Internet Data Streams in Epidemic Forecast. , 2016, The Journal of infectious diseases.
[130] J. Armstrong,et al. Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings , 1983 .
[131] Sutapa Pramanik,et al. Interval type-2 fuzzy logic and its application to occupational safety risk performance in industries , 2019, Soft Comput..
[132] William J. Hurley,et al. Combining expert judgment: On the performance of trimmed mean vote aggregation procedures in the presence of strategic voting , 2002, Eur. J. Oper. Res..
[133] Changyong Lee,et al. Robust Future‐Oriented Technology Portfolios: Black–Litterman Approach , 2013 .
[134] Andreas Graefe,et al. Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections , 2013 .
[135] R. Keeney. A Group Preference Axiomatization with Cardinal Utility , 1976 .
[136] T. Gneiting,et al. Combining probability forecasts , 2010 .
[137] Xueqing Zhang,et al. Bayesian Analytics for Estimating Risk Probability in PPP Waste-to-Energy Projects , 2018, Journal of Management in Engineering.
[138] A. Timmermann,et al. Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average? , 2013 .
[139] R. Clemen. Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography , 1989 .
[140] Bernard Zenko,et al. Is Combining Classifiers with Stacking Better than Selecting the Best One? , 2004, Machine Learning.
[141] M. J. van der Laan,et al. Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology Super Learner , 2010 .
[142] Lyle H. Ungar,et al. Probability aggregation in time-series: Dynamic hierarchical modeling of sparse expert beliefs , 2014, 1408.0087.