A Long-Term View of Fossil-Fuelled Power Generation in Europe

The paper presents a view into the long term future of fossil-fuelled power generation in the European Union, based on a number of alternative scenarios for the development of the coal, natural gas and CO2 markets, and the penetration of renewable and nuclear technologies. The new fossil fuelled capacity needed and the likely technology mix are estimated using a cost optimisation model based on the screening curve method, taking into consideration the rate of retirement of the current power plant fleet, the capacity already planned or under construction and the role of carbon capture and storage technologies. This analysis shows that measures to increase both non-fossil-fuel-based power generation and the price of CO2 are necessary to drive the composition of the European power generation capacity so that the European policy goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions is achieved. Meeting this goal will however require a high capital investment for the creation of an optimal fossil fuel power plant technology mix.