Evaluating the Risks

The lifespan sexual history of many Americans can be modeled as a series of long-term monogamous relationships coupled with some number of brief affairs. Implicit in this model is the assumption that these monogamous relationships arise as a natural consequence of the search for a single partner with whom to share one's life, and therefore cannot be eliminated. Hence the only opportunity to reduce the number of sexual partners is by decreasing the number of short-term relationships. In contrast, condoms can be used in all relationships, regardless of the expected duration. But which is more effective at reducing the risk of HIV infection, the consistent use of condoms or decreasing the number of short-term sexual partners? This article employs a Bernoulli process model of HIV transmission to evaluate the infection risks associated with various sexual behavior patterns in an attempt to answer such questions.

[1]  M. Becker,et al.  AIDS and behavioral change to reduce risk: a review. , 1988, American journal of public health.

[2]  R. Berk,et al.  An Evaluation of an Undergraduate Course On Aids , 1989 .

[3]  Daija Harris Confronting AIDS — Update 1988 , 1990 .

[4]  N. Freudenberg Aids Prevention in the United States: Lessons from the First Decade , 1990, International journal of health services : planning, administration, evaluation.

[5]  J. Peto AIDS AND PROMISCUITY , 1986, The Lancet.

[6]  E H Kaplan,et al.  Modeling HIV infectivity: must sex acts be counted? , 1990, Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes.

[7]  Douglas Crimp How to Have Promiscuity in an Epidemic , 1987 .

[8]  G. Friedland,et al.  [Transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus]. , 1987, Voprosy virusologii.

[9]  W Winkelstein,et al.  Infectivity of the human immunodeficiency virus: estimates from a prospective study of homosexual men. , 1987, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[10]  A. Stoddard,et al.  Responses to the aids epidemic among homosexually active men: Factors associated with preventive behavior☆ , 1989 .

[11]  S. Pinkerton,et al.  An Alternative Model of the Reproductive Rate of Hiv Infection , 1994 .

[12]  L. Bauman,et al.  Patterns of change in sexual behavior among gay men in New York City , 1988, Archives of sexual behavior.

[13]  R. Bolton AIDS and promiscuity: muddles in the models of HIV prevention. , 1992, Medical anthropology.

[14]  J. Wiley,et al.  Homosexual role separation and AIDS epidemics: Insights from elementary models , 1989 .

[15]  J. Phair,et al.  The Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study: rationale, organization, and selected characteristics of the participants. , 1987, American journal of epidemiology.

[16]  J. Martin,et al.  AIDS Risk Reduction Recommendations and Sexual Behavior Patterns among Gay Men: A Multifactorial Categorical Approach to Assessing Change , 1986, Health education quarterly.

[17]  L. Kingsley,et al.  Variables influencing condom use in a cohort of gay and bisexual men. , 1988, American journal of public health.

[18]  S. Hulley,et al.  Preventing the heterosexual spread of AIDS. Are we giving our patients the best advice? , 1988, JAMA.

[19]  B. Rothschild,et al.  Sex, drugs and matrices: Mathematical prediction of HIV infection , 1988 .

[20]  Roy M. Anderson,et al.  Transmission dynamics of HIV infection , 1987, Nature.

[21]  W Winkelstein,et al.  Male-to-female transmission of human immunodeficiency virus. , 1987, JAMA.

[22]  H V Fineberg,et al.  Education to prevent AIDS: prospects and obstacles. , 1988, Science.

[23]  R M May,et al.  A preliminary study of the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the causative agent of AIDS. , 1986, IMA journal of mathematics applied in medicine and biology.

[24]  J. Hendriks,et al.  Homosexual role separation: Implications for analyzing and modeling the spread of HIV , 1992 .

[25]  R. Connell,et al.  Sexuality in the aids crisis: Patterns of sexual practice and pleasure in a sample of Australian gay and bisexual men , 1990 .

[26]  J. Goedert Preventing the heterosexual spread of AIDS. , 1988, JAMA.

[27]  S. Cochran,et al.  Women and AIDS-related concerns. Roles for psychologists in helping the worried well. , 1989, The American psychologist.

[28]  I. L. Reiss,et al.  Evaluating strategies to avoid AIDS: number of partners vs. use of condoms. , 1989 .

[29]  Human immunodeficiency virus infection in the United States: a review of current knowledge. , 1987, MMWR supplements.

[30]  S. Pinkerton,et al.  Is risky sex rational , 1992 .

[31]  B. Eisenberg The number of partners and the probability of HIV infection. , 1989, Statistics in medicine.

[32]  P. Blumstein,et al.  American Couples: Money, Work and Sex , 1984 .

[33]  K. Wittkowski Preventing the heterosexual spread of AIDS: what is the best advice if compliance is taken into account? , 1989, AIDS.