论文信息 - Probabilistic temperature forecasts: The case for an operational program

Probabilistic temperature forecasts: The case for an operational program

Abstract The case for an operational program involving the formulation and dissemination of probabilistic temperature forecasts is presented. First, the need for information concerning the uncertainty in temperature forecasts is discussed, and examples of formal and informal decision-making situations in which such information would be useful are described. The results of experiments in probabilistic temperature forecasting are then reviewed, and it is concluded that experienced weather forecasters can quantify the uncertainty inherent in temperature forecasts in a reliable and skillful manner. Finally, the essential components of an operational probabilistic temperature forecasting program are outlined, and some suggestions are made regarding specific temperature events that should receive probabilistic treatment on an operational basis.

A. H. Murphy | R. L. Winkler

[1] Ernest Cooke,et al. FORECASTS AND VERIFICATIONS IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA , 2022 .

[2] G. Brier. VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY , 1950 .

[3] Philip Williams,et al. The Use of Confidence Factors in Forecasting , 1951 .

[4] G.,et al. THE USE OF PROBABILITY STATEMENTS IN EXTENDED FORECASTING , 1953 .

[5] J. C. Thompson,et al. THE ECONOMIC UTILITY OF WEATHER FORECASTS , 1955 .

[6] WEATHER INFORMATION: ITS USES, ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL, , 1964 .

[7] Frederick Sanders. The Verification of Probability Forecasts , 1967 .

[8] Edward S. Epstein,et al. A Scoring System for Probability Forecasts of Ranked Categories , 1969 .

[9] A. H. Murphy. A Note on the Ranked Probability Score , 1971 .

[10] A. H. Murphy,et al. credible interval temperature forecasts , 1972 .

[11] A. D. Cummings,et al. Some aspects of PoP forecast performance by Southern Region WSFOs -- revisited , 1974 .

[12] Lance F. Bosart. SUNYA Experimental Results in Forecasting Daily Temperature and Precipitation , 1975 .

[13] Automated Temperature Guidance Based on Three-Month Seasons , 1976 .

[14] Frank S. Conklin,et al. The Value of Frost Forecasting: A Bayesian Appraisal , 1976 .

[15] J. Tukey,et al. Variations of Box Plots , 1978 .