Models of Technological Evolution: Their Impact on Technology Management

Discusses the model of industrial development, the S‐curve model and the model of technological life cycles. Shows that these three models are based on similar assumptions and are, therefore, closely related. The analysis shows, furthermore, that the models have significant implications for technology management. Finally, analyses the extent to which conventional methods of evaluating technological projects take these implications into account. Subjective evaluation techniques, risk/return analyses as well as portfolio methods are subject to critical appraisal. All in all, it becomes clear that these evaluative tools are, at best, of limited use.