Can scenario planning catalyse transformational change? Evaluating a climate change policy case study in Mali

The potential of participatory scenario processes to catalyse individual and collective transformation and policy change is emphasised in several theoretical reflections. Participatory scenario processes are believed to enhance participants’ systems understanding, learning, networking and subsequent changes in practices. However, limited empirical evidence is available to prove these assumptions. This study aimed to contribute to this knowledge gap. It evaluates whether these outcomes had resulted from the scenario planning exercise and the extent to which they can contribute to transformational processes. The research focused on a district level case study in rural Mali which examined food security and necessary policy changes in the context of climate change. The analyses of interviews with 26 participants carried out 12 months after the workshop suggested positive changes in learning and networking, but only limited influence on systems understanding. There was limited change in practice, but the reported changes occurred at the individual level, and no policy outcomes were evident. However, by building the adaptive capacity of participants, the scenario process had laid the foundation for ongoing collective action, and potential institutional and policy transformation. We conclude that to enhance the resilience of agricultural and food systems under climate change, participatory scenario processes require a broader range of cross-scale actors’ engagement to support transformational changes. Such process will both catalyse deeper learning and more effective link with national level policy-making process. In addition, individual scenario planning exercises are unlikely to generate sufficient learning and reflection, and instead they should form one component of more extensive and deliberate stakeholder engagement, learning and evaluation processes.

[1]  Tanya Chung Tiam Fook.  Transformational processes for community-focused adaptation and social change: a synthesis , 2017 .

[2]  G. Cundill,et al.  A review of assertions about the processes and outcomes of social learning in natural resource management. , 2012, Journal of environmental management.

[3]  Bernd Diekkrüger,et al.  Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture , 2016 .

[4]  J. Butler,et al.  Climate knowledge cultures: Stakeholder perspectives on change and adaptation in Nusa Tenggara Barat, Indonesia , 2016 .

[5]  D. Dennis,et al.  Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed , 1998 .

[6]  K. Moore,et al.  Research, part of a Special Feature on Exploring Social-Ecological Resilience through the Lens of the Social Sciences: Contributions, Critical Reflections, and Constructive Debate Understanding adaptation and transformation through indigenous practice: the case of the Guna of Panama , 2015 .

[7]  Modelling cereal crops to assess future climate risk for family food self-sufficiency in southern Mali , 2017 .

[8]  C. Pahl-Wostl,et al.  A conceptual framework for analysing adaptive capacity and multi-level learning processes in resource governance regimes , 2009 .

[9]  D. Decker,et al.  Social Learning for Collaborative Natural Resource Management , 2003 .

[10]  Angela Wilkinson,et al.  Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change , 2014 .

[11]  V. Afari-Sefa,et al.  Improving the productivity and income of Ghanaian cocoa farmers while maintaining environmental services: what role for certification? , 2013 .

[12]  J. Butler,et al.  Priming adaptation pathways through adaptive co-management: Design and evaluation for developing countries , 2016 .

[13]  Cullen S. Hendrix,et al.  Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa , 2012 .

[14]  A. Challinor,et al.  Climate change, agriculture and food security: a global partnership to link research and action for low-income agricultural producers and consumers , 2012 .

[15]  James R.A. Butler,et al.  Scenarios for Knowledge Integration: Exploring Ecotourism Futures in Milne Bay, Papua New Guinea , 2011 .

[16]  James C. Scott,et al.  Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed , 1999 .

[17]  N. Röling,et al.  An innovation systems approach to institutional change: Smallholder development in West Africa , 2012 .

[18]  Muhammad Amer,et al.  A review of scenario planning , 2013 .

[19]  P. Tschakert,et al.  Inequality and transformation analyses: a complementary lens for addressing vulnerability to climate change , 2013 .

[20]  John Handmer,et al.  Triggering transformation: Managing resilience or invoking real change? , 2013 .

[21]  Adam Kahane,et al.  Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the Future , 2012 .

[22]  M. Pelling,et al.  Research, part of a Special Feature on Resilience Through Multi-scalar Collaboration From Resilience to Transformation: the Adaptive Cycle in Two Mexican Urban Centers , 2011 .

[23]  O. Osumah.  Boko Haram insurgency in Northern Nigeria and the vicious cycle of internal insecurity , 2013 .

[24]  J. Martin-Ortega,et al.  Participatory scenario planning for developing innovation in community adaptation responses: three contrasting examples from Latin America , 2016, Regional Environmental Change.

[25]  A. Langyintuo,et al.  Farmers' Perceptions on Rice Varieties in Sikasso Region of Mali and their Implications for Rice Breeding , 2008 .

[26]  Bradley D. Parrish,et al.  What is social learning , 2010 .

[27]  Laura Schmitt Olabisi,et al.  Using participatory scenarios to stimulate social learning for collaborative sustainable development , 2012 .

[28]  Dale S. Rothman,et al.  Participatory scenario construction in land use analysis: An insight into the experiences created by stakeholder involvement in the Northern Mediterranean , 2007 .

[29]  R. Plummer,et al.  Adapting and Transforming: Governance for Navigating Change , 2010 .

[30]  J. Brian Atwater,et al.  Cultivating Systemic Thinking in the Next Generation of Business Leaders , 2008 .

[31]  J. Butler,et al.  Framing the application of adaptation pathways for rural livelihoods and global change in eastern Indonesian islands , 2014 .

[32]  D. Perkins,et al.  Chapter 1: Individual and Social Aspects of Learning , 1998 .

[33]  Diana Wright,et al.  Thinking in systems: a primer , 2012 .

[34]  Hugo Valin,et al.  Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context , 2017, Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions.

[35]  G. C. Kooten.  Poverty and Climate Change , 2012 .

[36]  Laura Schmitt Olabisi,et al.  Do participatory scenario exercises promote systems thinking and build consensus?Do participatory scenarios promote systems thinking and build consensus? , 2016 .

[37]  D. Edmunds,et al.  Using scenarios to make decisions about the future: anticipatory learning for the adaptive co-management of community forests , 2000 .

[38]  D. Perkins,et al.  Individual and Social Aspects of Learning , 1998 .

[39]  L. Boerboom,et al.  Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps , 2015 .

[40]  Joost Vervoort,et al.  Participatory scenarios as a tool to link science and policy on food security under climate change in East Africa , 2013, Regional Environmental Change.

[41]  A. Paraskevas.  Andragogy and the Socratic Method: The Adult Learner Perspective , 2003 .

[42]  P. Traoré,et al.  How does institutional embeddedness shape innovation platforms? A diagnostic study of three districts in the Upper West Region of Ghana , 2018 .

[43]  P. Thongbai,et al.  Participatory Scenarios for Sustainable Management of an ASB Benchmark site in Thailand: The case of Mae Kong Kha Sub- watershed of Mae Chaem Watershed , 2007 .

[44]  T. Downing,et al.  Global Desertification: Building a Science for Dryland Development , 2007, Science.

[45]  Garry D. Peterson,et al.  Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies , 2015 .

[46]  Federica Ravera,et al.  Research, part of a Special Feature on Resilience and Vulnerability of Arid and Semi-Arid Social Ecological Systems Envisioning Adaptive Strategies to Change: Participatory Scenarios for Agropastoral Semiarid Systems in Nicaragua , 2011 .

[47]  J. Butler,et al.  Integrating Top-Down and Bottom-Up Adaptation Planning to Build Adaptive Capacity: A Structured Learning Approach , 2015 .

[48]  G. Henderson.  Transformative Learning as a Condition for Transformational Change in Organizations , 2002 .

[49]  J. Brian Atwater,et al.  Facilitating Systemic Thinking in Business Classes , 2006 .

[50]  James R.A. Butler,et al.  Scenario planning to leap-frog the Sustainable Development Goals: An adaptation pathways approach , 2016 .

[51]  S. Fankhauser,et al.  The Economics of Climate-Resilient Development , 2016 .

[52]  Guido Reger,et al.  Advantages and Disadvantages of Scenario Approaches for Strategic Foresight , 2005 .

[53]  Surulola Eke,et al.  State fragility and violent uprisings in Nigeria , 2013 .

[54]  Moses M. Tenywa,et al.  Agricultural innovation platform as a tool for development oriented research: Lessons and challenges in the formation and operationalization , 2011 .

[55]  T. Darbas,et al.  Building capacity for adaptation pathways in eastern Indonesian islands: Synthesis and lessons learned , 2016 .

[56]  O. Cofie,et al.  Recycling of urban organic waste for urban agriculture. , 2006 .

[57]  R. Few,et al.  Transformation in Adaptation: Learning from ASSAR’s Regional Diagnostic Studies , 2016 .

[58]  I. Fazey,et al.  Reconceptualising adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of change and response , 2014 .

[59]  Laura Schmitt Olabisi,et al.  Using Scenario Visioning and Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Investigate the Future: Lessons from Minnesota 2050 , 2010 .

[60]  Petra Wächter.  Thinking in systems – a primer , 2011 .

[61]  D. Corkal,et al.  The interplay between incremental, transitional, and transformational adaptation: a case study of Canadian agriculture , 2017, Regional Environmental Change.

[62]  R. Carrere.  Oil palm in Africa: Past, present and future scenarios , 2011 .

[63]  R. Kates,et al.  Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[64]  F. Angelucci,et al.  Review of food and agricultural policies in Malawi , 2019 .