Risk Attitude Reversals in Drivers' Route Choice When Range of Travel Time Information Is Provided

Automobile drivers were recently found to be risk averse when choosing among routes that had an average travel time shorter than the certain travel time of a route considered as a reference. Conversely, drivers were found to be risk seeking when choosing among routes that had an average travel time longer than the certain travel time of the reference route. In a driving simulation study in which the reference route had a range of travel times, this pattern was replicated when the reference range was smaller than the ranges of the available routes. However, the pattern was reversed when the reference range was larger than the ranges of the available routes. We recently proposed a simple heuristic model that fit the relatively complex data quite well. Actual or potential applications of this research include the design of variable message signs and of route choice support systems.

[1]  P. Bovy,et al.  ROUTE CHOICE: WAYFINDING IN TRANSPORT NETWORKS , 1990 .

[2]  J. Jucker,et al.  An Empirical Study of Travel Time Variability and Travel Choice Behavior , 1982 .

[3]  Jerome L. Myers,et al.  Repeated measurements of dichotomous variables: Q and F tests. , 1982 .

[4]  P. Kline Models of man , 1986, Nature.

[5]  Donald L. Fisher,et al.  The Framing of Drivers' Route Choices when Travel Time Information Is Provided under Varying Degrees of Cognitive Load , 2000, Hum. Factors.

[6]  Jan Theeuwes,et al.  Driving Simulator Validity: Some Considerations , 1996 .

[7]  Richard J. Hanowski,et al.  Driver Acceptance of Unreliable Traffic Information in Familiar and Unfamiliar Settings , 1997, Hum. Factors.

[8]  J. Jaffray,et al.  Experimental comparison of individual behavior under risk and under uncertainty for gains and for losses , 1987 .

[9]  Jerzy Neyman,et al.  PROCEEDINGS OF THE BERKELEY SYMPOSIUM ON MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY (5TH) HELD JUNE 21-JULY 18, 1965, AND DECEMBER 27, 1965-JANUARY 7, 1966. VOLUME III. PHYSICAL SCIENCES AND ENGINEERING. , 1950 .

[10]  Donald L. Fisher,et al.  Advanced Parking Management Systems: Models of Drivers' Parking Strategies , 1998 .

[11]  H. Huynh,et al.  Estimation of the Box Correction for Degrees of Freedom from Sample Data in Randomized Block and Split-Plot Designs , 1976 .

[12]  A. Tversky,et al.  Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty , 1992 .

[13]  H. Huynh,et al.  Conditions under Which Mean Square Ratios in Repeated Measurements Designs Have Exact F-Distributions , 1970 .

[14]  Mohamed Abdel-Aty,et al.  USING STATED PREFERENCE DATA FOR STUDYING THE EFFECT OF ADVANCED TRAFFIC INFORMATION ON DRIVERS' ROUTE CHOICE , 1997 .

[15]  H. Simon,et al.  Models of Man. , 1957 .

[16]  A. Tversky,et al.  The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. , 1981, Science.

[17]  Lola L. Lopes Risk and Distributional Inequality. , 1984 .

[18]  安川 文明,et al.  予防歯科プログラムの選考に関する Discrete Choice Analysis , 2002 .

[19]  G Gigerenzer,et al.  Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality. , 1996, Psychological review.