Limits of Knowledge and the Limited Importance of Trust

Perceived risk and related attitudes have been implicated as major factors in many of the difficult policy problems that face modern society (nuclear power, genetically modified food, etc). Experts often argue that no or very small risks are involved; people are still worried. Why? The standard answer is lack of trust. Data on trust and risk perception, however, point to only a weak relationship between the two (r approximately 0.3). It is suggested here that the reason for the surprisingly minor importance of trust is that people believe that there are clear limits to how much science and experts know. Results are presented from studies of risk perception of the public, experts, and politicians. Politicians and members of the public believe that there are many unknown effects of technology and such beliefs were strongly related to their perceived risk. Experts on nuclear waste, on the other hand, seemed to believe that little is unknown in their field of expertise. Regression analyses of risk perception showed the unknown-effects factor to be a more important explanatory factor than trust for the public and politicians.

[1]  R. Kasperson,et al.  Social Distrust as a Factor in Siting Hazardous Facilities and Communicating Risks , 1992 .

[2]  V T Covello,et al.  The Determinants of Trust and Credibility in Environmental Risk Communication: An Empirical Study , 1997, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[3]  Anthony Giddens.  Modernity and self-identity , 1991 .

[4]  M K McBeth,et al.  Citizen perceptions of risks associated with moving radiological waste. , 1995, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[5]  Paul Slovic,et al.  Perception of Risk From Radiation , 1996 .

[6]  Paul Slovic,et al.  Trust as a Determinant of Opposition to a High‐Level Radioactive Waste Repository: Analysis of a Structural Model , 1992 .

[7]  Robert E. O'Connor,et al.  Determinants of Risk Perceptions of a Hazardous Waste Site , 1992 .

[8]  Lennart Sjöberg,et al.  Risk perception and worries after the chernobyl accident , 1990 .

[9]  Paul Slovic,et al.  Perceived risk, trust, and democracy , 1993 .

[10]  L Sjöberg,et al.  Specifying factors in radiation risk perception. , 2000, Scandinavian journal of psychology.

[11]  M. Poumadère.  Enjeux de la communication publique des risques pour la santé et l'environnement , 1995 .

[12]  A. Giddens.  Modernity and Self-Identity: Self and Society in the Late Modern Age , 1992, The New Social Theory Reader.

[13]  Abraham Wandersman,et al.  Present Risk, Future Risk Or No Risk - Measuring and Predicting Perceptions of Health Risks of a Hazardous Waste Landfill , 1995 .

[14]  P Slovic,et al.  Perceived Risk, Trust, and the Politics of Nuclear Waste , 1991, Science.

[15]  Steven W. Martsolf,et al.  Credibility, Public Trust, and the Transport of Radioactive Waste Through Local Communities , 1996 .

[16]  Eugene A. Rosa,et al.  Public reactions to nuclear waste : citizens' views of repository siting , 1994 .

[17]  Ortwin Renn,et al.  Credibility and trust in risk communication , 1991 .

[18]  R. J. Bord,et al.  Risk Communication, Knowledge, and Attitudes: Explaining Reactions to a Technology Perceived as Risky , 1990 .

[19]  A. Mushkatel,et al.  Public Opposition To The Siting Of The High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository: The Importance Of Trust , 1991 .

[20]  A Biel,et al.  Risk perception and the location of a repository for spent nuclear fuel. , 1995, Scandinavian journal of psychology.

[21]  Lennart Sjöberg,et al.  Specifying Factors in Radiation Risk Perception1 , 2000 .

[22]  Howard Kunreuther,et al.  The Dilemma of Siting a High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository , 1995 .

[23]  Lennart Sjöberg,et al.  Mood and belief-value correlation , 1983 .

[24]  L Sjöberg,et al.  Worry and Risk Perception , 1998, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[25]  Colin Camerer,et al.  The process-performance paradox in expert judgment - How can experts know so much and predict so badly? , 1991 .

[26]  Timothy C. Earle,et al.  Social Trust , 1995 .

[27]  A. F. Fritzsche.  The Role of the Unconscious in the Perception of Risks , 1995 .