Modelling of Human Performance-Related Hazards in ATM

Existing approach towards agent-based safety risk analysis in Air Traffic Management (ATM) covers hazards that may potentially occur within air traffic operations along two ways. One way is to cover hazards through agent-based model constructs. The second way is to cover hazards through bias and uncertainty analysis in combination with sensitivity analysis of the agent-based model. The disadvantage of the latter approach is that it is more limited in capturing potential emergent behaviour that could be caused by unmodelled hazards. The research presented in this paper explores to what extent agent-based model constructs that have been developed for other purposes, are capable to model more hazards in ATM through the agent-based framework. The focus is on model constructs developed by VU Amsterdam, mainly addressing human factors and interaction between multiple (human and computer) agents within teams. Inspired by a large data base of ATM hazards analysed earlier, a number of VU model constructs are identified that have the potential to model remaining hazards. These model constructs are described at a conceptual level, and analysed with respect to the extent at which they increase the percentage of modelled hazards in ATM.

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